我国特别处理上市公司财务风险变动的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 04:38

本文选题：财务风险变动　切入点：影响因素　出处：《浙江财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，伴随着经济全球化发展的脚步不断加快，给企业带来机遇的同时也使企业面临着更大的挑战。而我国由于资本市场还不够成熟以及股市的剧烈波动，被冠以ST或*ST的上市公司的数量不断增多，更加引起股权人、债权人及相关利益者的关注。对于特别处理上市公司财务风险进一步变动趋势，就变得至关重要，这也是本文研究的重点。通过准确分析影响特别处理上市公司财务风险变动趋势的主要因素，将有利于管理者改善经营方式、投资者做出正确判断、银行发放贷款以及监管者有效完善监管措施。本文的技术路线在于：第一、绪论部分。主要简单介绍本文的研究背景、意义、方法及本文的研究框架与创新点；第二、文献综述。主要借鉴国内外企业财务困境预测研究文献，从财务困境成因及企业财务困境研究方法两方面来阐述，为本文进一步研究打下文献基础；第三、理论分析。借鉴国内外文献构建相关财务风险研究模型所选取的变量，分别从企业偿债能力、盈利能力、现金流量及营运能力四个方面共选取16个财务指标，并借鉴相关文献选取行业指数与利率两个经济指标变量，定性的分析这些变量是如何对特别处理上市公司财务风险变动造成影响的；第四、实证分析。主要借鉴Tinoco, Nick Wilson(2013)研究思路，首先，研究设计，主要包括样本的选取、变量的确定及模型的构建等内容；然后，将初步选择的16个财务指标作独立性检验与Pearson相关性检验，最终确定资产负债率、营运资金与总负债比、股东权益利润率、营业利润率、全部资产现金回收率、债务保障率、应付账款比率及股东权益/总负债共8个财务指标，再加上前文提到的行业指数、利率两个宏观变量指标来共同构建面板Logit模型，采用Stata软件来具体分析，通过Hausman检验来确定固定效应模型；最后，进行模型预测检验与稳健性检验；第五、研究结论与研究局限性。根据理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法得到资产负债率、营运资金与总负债比、营业利润率、行业指数、利率及某些年份对特别处理上市公司财务风险变动造成显著影响的结论，并在相关结论的基础上提出一些建议。文章最后部分点明本文的局限之处，并对后续研究提出展望。本文的特色之处在于：第一、国内外很多学者在研究企业财务风险方面的内容时，往往是将企业简单的分为ST公司和非ST公司来对企业的财务困境进行监测。而本文将特别处理上市公司财务风险进行级别划分，，研究已陷入财务困境的特别处理上市公司的财务风险进一步趋势变化（恶化或者好转）。第二、以往文献主要是从财务角度来分析公司从正常变为特别处理的财务影响因素，构建和改进财务预警模型。而本文构建了考虑宏观经济时滞性影响和财务指标的特别处理上市公司财务风险变动影响因素分析模型，为剖析企业财务风险提供新的视角、模型和方法。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of economic globalization is accelerating the pace, bring opportunities but also make enterprises face greater challenges. Because of our capital market is not mature and the stock market volatility, known as the ST or *ST of the number of listed companies is increasing, more equity, creditor and the stakeholders concerned. For the special treatment of financial risk of listed companies further trend becomes critical, which is the focus of this study. The special treatment the main factors of financial risk trend changes of listed companies through accurate analysis, will help managers to improve operation mode, investors make the right judgments, bank loans and regulators effectively improve the regulatory measures.
The technical route of this paper is: first, the introduction part. This paper briefly introduces the research background, significance, research framework and innovation methods and the literature review.; second, mainly from the domestic and foreign enterprises financial distress prediction research literature, from the two aspects of the causes of financial distress and corporate financial distress research method to explain, for this further study lay the foundation of literature; third, theoretical analysis. From domestic and foreign literature related research of constructing financial risk model of selected variables, respectively, from the profitability, solvency of enterprises, the four aspects of the cash flow and the ability of operating a total of 16 selected financial indicators, and the related literature from the industry index and the interest rate of two economic indicators the analysis of qualitative variables, these variables are of special treatment listed companies financial risk caused by changes in the impact; fourth, empirical analysis. The main reference Tino Co, Nick Wilson (2013) first of all, research ideas, research design, including sample selection, construction of content determination and model variables; then, correlation test and Pearson test the independence of the 16 financial indicators will be the initial choice, and ultimately determine the rate of assets and liabilities, working capital and the ratio of total liabilities to shareholders. The interests of profit margin, operating profit rate, total assets cash recovery rate, debt guarantee rate, accounts payable ratio and equity / total liabilities total of 8 financial indicators, coupled with the previously mentioned industry index, interest rate two macro variables to build the panel Logit model, analyzed by Stata software, to fixed effects model by Hausman test; finally, the model prediction test and robustness test; fifth, the research conclusions and research limitations. According to the method of combining theoretical analysis and empirical analysis of the assets The debt ratio, working capital and the ratio of total liabilities, operating margins, industry index, interest rate and some years of special treatment of listed companies financial risk changes caused a significant impact on the conclusions, and puts forward some suggestions based on the conclusion. The last part of the article points out the limitations of this paper, and put forward the prospects for future research.
The feature of this paper lies in: first, many scholars at home and abroad in the research of the financial risks of enterprise content, the enterprise is often simply divided into ST and non ST companies to financial distress of enterprises. This paper will monitor and special treatment of listed companies financial risk in financial risk classification, especially further Trend Study on the treatment of already listed companies in financial distress changes (deterioration or better). Second, the literature is mainly to analyze the company from normal to financial influencing factors of special treatment from a financial point of view, to build and improve the financial early-warning model constructed in this paper. And considering the special treatment of macroeconomic and financial indicators of the impact of time delay analysis model of influence factors of financial risk in listed companies, provide a new perspective for the analysis of enterprise financial risk, model and method.

【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F275

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