发达经济体政府债务问题研究

发布时间：2018-04-12 06:04

本文选题：发达经济体 + 政府债务　；参考：《辽宁大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：始于2008年的金融危机重创了世界经济，这场危机使经济前景变得扑朔迷离，也严重损伤了发达经济体的公共财政状况，金融危机之后发达经济体在债务的泥潭中越陷越深，美国面临着不可持续的债务负担以及持续的政治瘫痪，欧洲一直承受着主权债务危机和各国政治不合的重压；欧美财政整顿的失利正将世界拖入一个延续多年的低增长期，政府债务问题日益成为全球经济不能承受之重。如今在主权债务的风暴中，欧美发达经济体正艰难地寻找着债务问题的解药，在可预见的未来削减债务仍将是发达经济体政策讨论的优先议题。但对于如何寻找政府债务的长期可持续之路，发达经济体至今仍然缺乏清晰的思路。在这一背景之下，本文主要关心的问题如下：发达国家的政府债务如何演变至今？政府债务积累会对经济产生何种影响？对于在发达国家实现成功的债务削减，历史提供了哪些经验与启示？危机后各国普遍出现的“金融抑制”政策能否有效化解当前的债务僵局？长期视角下如何抑制政府债务倾向？本文首先在第二章回顾了发达国家政府债务诞生的历史，对比分析了不同时期政府债务的差异，同时也介绍了政府债务相关研究的若干理论基础。接着第三章中以1980-2009年期间61个国家（其中包括25个典型发达国家和36个发展中国家）组成的面板数据，采用系统GMM方法对政府债务与经济增长之间的非线性关系进行了实证分析，较好的克服了变量内生性问题，结果显示政府债务与经济增长之间存在着非线性(倒U型)关系，这种关系普遍存在于发达国家和发展中国家；证明了债务阈值的存在性，且两组国家中政府债务阈值的大小存在显著差异。但是，政府债务阈值并不具有唯一性和确定性，它随利率、通货膨胀、经常账户和金融发展的变化而显示出动态性特征，同时上述变量对两组国家的影响存在显著的区别。基于“政府债务的过度积累不利于长期经济增长”这一基本判断，本文第四章试图在长期历史中总结政府债务削减的经验。首先，定义何为成功的债务削减周期，在1880-2012年长达百余年的发达国家政府债务数据中，按照定义筛选出195次成功的政府债务削减周期；其次，实证检验了通货膨胀、名义利率、基础预算平衡、长期增长等变量在实现成功债务削减过程中所扮演的角色。结果显示：当基础财政赤字的下降主要由紧缩支出所推动时，能够使得债务削减成功的概率大大增加，而通过增加财政收入的方式所进行的财政巩固政策对于遏制政府债务的膨胀并无太多帮助，甚至会使形势进一步恶化；长期经济增长率在政府债务削减过程中发挥着重要作用；利用通货膨胀稀释债务存量的方式似乎并不像人们所认为的那么效果显著；政府债务削减成功与否同样对于名义利率的变动极为敏感；出人意料的是沉重的债务负担往往成为债务削减的动力之一。最后，基于不同时间段的考察发现，政府债务削减对于各个变量的敏感程度会发生变化。第五章的研究发现，在当前背景下，被人们所忽略的金融抑制因其在化解政府债务方面的独特优势正在成为发达国家应对政府债务问题的政策工具。二战之后，发达国家的政府债务规模达到历史最高点，在解决债务问题的过程中，金融抑制发挥了重要作用。然而结合第四章的实证结果，本文发现面对迥异的外部条件，如今金融抑制的效果已大打折扣，它并不能成为政府债务问题的最终化解之道，同时也必将对全球经济带来新的挑战，比如会使发达国家货币政策面临巨大压力、社会福利损失、新兴经济体宏观经济政策面临更多制约及全球金融行业与金融中心的多极化格局日渐显现等。本文第六章试图寻找长期视角下的政府债务化解之道，通过考察本文发现当前的政府债务周期起点可追溯至1970年代。早期发达国家政府债务积累往往与战争相联系，，然而1970年代以来，在无战争与冲突的背景下发达国家债务水平却持续增长，成为历史上的独特现象。分析发现，新政治经济学领域中选民的“不完备知识”和政治进程中的“策略性互动”对此给出了有力的解释，政府债务内生性出现。长期以来发达国家试图利用财政规则抑制政府债务的不断膨胀，但本文的实证检验显示财政规则实施的效果并不显著，这一结果源于它不能消除债务的内生性问题。受到独立央行的启发，危机之后独立的财政委员会开始受到更多人的关注。分析表明理论上这一制度安排能够成为内生性政府债务的解，并通过考察历史上成功的实践，本文归纳出关于财政委员会的若干原则，希望为当前正处于全球债务迷雾中的政策制定者带来些许启示。第七章对前文中的主要结论进行总结，依据本文的研究对当前发达国家政府债务问题及若干争论进行评述；同时对全文进行反思，在此基础上对未来的研究方向进行展望。
[Abstract]:In 2008 the financial crisis hit the world economy, the crisis has made the economic outlook has also seriously damage the whirling, the public finances of the developed economies after the financial crisis, developed economies in debt quagmire deeper, the United States faces an unsustainable debt burden and sustained political paralysis in Europe has been under the sovereign debt crisis and political pressure in Europe not; fiscal consolidation is to defeat the world into a continuation of years of low growth, government debt has become the global economy unbearable. Now in the sovereign debt crisis, developed economies are struggling to find a debt problem in the antidote. The future will still be the priority issues of debt reduction policy in developed economies. But for the discussion of how to find the government debt to the long-term and sustainable way of development The economy is still a lack of clear ideas. In this context, the main concern of this paper are as follows: the government debt of developed countries has evolved to? Government debt accumulation will affect the economy? To achieve successful debt reduction in developed countries, which provides historical experience and Enlightenment of post crisis countries generally appear? The "financial repression" policy can effectively resolve the current debt impasse? How to reduce government debt tends to long-term perspective?
In the second chapter reviews the history of the birth of government debt in developed countries, analyzes the difference of government debt in different periods, and some related theories of government debt are also introduced. Then in Chapter third to 1980-2009 years in 61 countries (including 25 typical developed countries and 36 developing countries) panel data the system uses GMM method to the nonlinear relationship between government debt and economic growth by empirical analysis, solves the problem of endogenous variable, the results show that there exist nonlinear between government debt and economic growth (U) relationship, this relationship exists in developed and developing countries to prove the existence of the debt; the threshold, and there was significant difference between the two groups of countries in government debt threshold. However, the government debt threshold is not only determined and It shows dynamic characteristics with interest rate, inflation, current account and financial development. Meanwhile, the above variables have significant differences in the influence of the two countries.
Based on the "excessive accumulation of government debt is not conducive to long-term economic growth" as the basic judgment, the fourth chapter attempts to summarize the government debt reduction in the long historical experience. First, what is the definition of successful debt reduction period, government debt of developed country data in 1880-2012 years for hundreds of years, in accordance with the definition of selected 195 the success of government debt reduction period; secondly, the empirical test of the inflation, the nominal interest rate, the basic budget balance, long-term growth and other variables play in achieving successful debt reduction in the process of role. The results indicate that when the decline in basic fiscal deficit mainly by austerity driven, can make the probability of successful debt reduction greatly increased but, through fiscal consolidation policy to increase revenue for the way to curb the expansion of government debt is not too much help, and even make the situation. A further deterioration in debt reduction; the government plays an important role in the process of long-term economic growth rate; inflation by way of debt stock dilution doesn't seem like people think that the effect is significant; government debt reduction success as well as the nominal interest rate is extremely sensitive to changes is beyond all expectations; the heavy debt burden is one of the most dynamic debt reduction. Finally, we have found based on different periods of time, the government debt reduction for the sensitive degree of each variable will be changed.
The fifth chapter of the study found that, in the current context, financial repression policy instruments are ignored is becoming the developed countries to deal with the problem of government debt because of its unique advantages in resolving the government debt of developed countries. After World War II, the size of government debt reached the highest point in history, in the process of solving the debt problem in the play the important role of financial repression. However, according to the results of the fourth chapter, this paper found the face of different external conditions, financial repression effects now, it does not become the ultimate resolve the government debt problem of the road, but also will bring new challenges to the global economy, for example, will make monetary policy in developed countries are facing tremendous pressure, the loss of social welfare, emerging economies, macroeconomic policy is more restrictive and multi polarization pattern of the global financial industry and financial centers are becoming more apparent.
In the sixth chapter, from the perspective of trying to find a long-term solution to the debt of the government, through the study found that the current government debt cycle starting point can be traced back to 1970s. The early developed countries government debt accumulation often associated with war, however, since 1970s, in the absence of war and conflict under the background of developed countries, the level of debt continues to grow, become a unique the phenomenon of history. Analysis shows that the voters of new political economics in the field of "incomplete knowledge" and the political process in the "strategic interaction" which gives the powerful explanation, endogenous government debt. Long developed countries try to restrain government debt by the expansion of fiscal rules, but the empirical test shows the rules for the implementation of the effect is not significant, this result stems from its inability to eliminate the endogeneity problem of debt. Inspired by the independent central bank, After the crisis of independent Finance Committee began to receive more and more people's attention. The theory analysis shows that this system can become the endogeneity of government debt, and through the practice of reviewing the history of success, this paper sums up some principles on the finance committee, hoping to work for is currently in the global debt policy brings a little in the fog enlightenment. The seventh chapter summarizes the main conclusions of the above, according to the research of the current government debt of developed countries and some debates; also reflection of the full text, on the basis of the direction of future research prospects.

【学位授予单位】：辽宁大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F811.5;F112.2

【参考文献】