高管过度自信对我国上市公司现金股利政策的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 00:29

本文选题：高管过度自信 + 主成分分析　；参考：《长沙理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：对股利政策问题的探讨是现代金融活动的三大核心内容之一。20世纪80年代,随着行为金融学兴起,一些学者开始放宽条件,他们试图将决策者做决策时的心理特征作为变量来研究资本市场中的问题。在公司高管人员的众多非理性行为中,过度自信是最突出的一种。本文选取2005年-2011年在沪深两市上市的非金融保险类的只发行A股的上市公司(剔除ST、*ST、S*ST股)为样本,通过运用主成分分析将高管持股比例、高管相对薪酬比例、公司并购次数和企业景气指数这四个常用来替代高管过度自信的指标进行合成,尝试构建一个新的高管过度自信的代理变量,引入Probit回归模型,来具体研究高管过度自信对我国上市公司现金股利政策的影响。通过实证得到以下主要结论：我国上市公司高管的过度自信心理会对公司的现金股利政策产生正向影响；公司获利率、公司规模与公司现金股利政策正相关,公司潜在发展机会与其没有显著相关性：研究样本中有将近一半的公司发放现金股利,不同公司在潜在发展机会、获利能力和公司规模上存在较大差异。高管过度自信心理对我国上市公司现金股利政策影响的研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。在目前国内外学者大多使用单指标来衡量高管过度自信的背景下,尝试合成一个新的代理变量来度量高管过度自信,这为高管过度自信代理指标的选择这一难题提供了一个新的参考途径。并且,运用一个新的高管过度自信的替代变量来研究上市公司高管过度自信的心理特征对公司现金股利政策的影响,也丰富了行为公司金融中股利政策方面的相关研究。在现实决策中,本文的研究既有利于将行为公司金融学和心理学的相关知识应用于指导公司金融决策,也能够起到促进公司重视股权激励制度对高管的激励约束的作用。
[Abstract]:The discussion of dividend policy is one of the three core contents of modern financial activities. In the 1980s, with the rise of behavioral finance, some scholars began to relax the conditions.They try to study the problems in the capital market by taking the psychological characteristics of decision makers as variables.Among the many irrational behaviors of executives, overconfidence is the most prominent one.This paper selects non-financial and insurance listed companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets from 2005 to 2011 (excluding STA shares) as samples, and applies principal component analysis (PCA) to analyze the proportion of senior executives' shareholding and the relative compensation of executives.The times of mergers and acquisitions and the business climate index, which are often used to replace the index of executive overconfidence, are combined to try to construct a new proxy variable of executive overconfidence, and introduce the Probit regression model.To study the impact of executive overconfidence on the cash dividend policy of listed companies in China.The main conclusions are as follows: the overconfidence of the executives of listed companies in China has a positive impact on the cash dividend policy, and the profit rate, the size of the company and the cash dividend policy are positively correlated.There is no significant correlation between the potential development opportunities and the potential development opportunities: nearly half of the companies in the study sample pay cash dividends, and there are significant differences among different companies in terms of potential development opportunities, profitability and company size.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the influence of executive overconfidence on the cash dividend policy of listed companies in China.At present, most scholars at home and abroad use single index to measure executive overconfidence, and try to synthesize a new proxy variable to measure executive overconfidence.This provides a new reference way for executives to choose the proxy index of overconfidence.Moreover, using a new alternative variable of executive overconfidence to study the psychological characteristics of executive overconfidence in listed companies on the impact of corporate cash dividend policy, it also enriches the relevant research on dividend policy in behavioral corporate finance.In the realistic decision-making, the research in this paper is not only helpful to apply the related knowledge of behavioral corporate finance and psychology to the guidance of corporate financial decision-making, but also can promote the company to attach importance to the incentive constraints of equity incentive system.
【学位授予单位】：长沙理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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