媒介变迁视角下的媒体报道与股价波动关联性研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 17:17

本文选题：网络传播深化 + 独立媒体　；参考：《上海外国语大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：影响股价波动的因素非常复杂,从宏观经济运行到企业日常经营,甚至于股价本身的波动也会产生二次信息继而影响到下一刻股价的走势。本文不局限于此。注意到社会生活正在悄然的被新的技术新的传播媒介所改变,而这种改变不只是信息获取的直接性、快捷性,这种改变正使得事物的影响机制与以往有所不同。其中,股价的波动正随着传播媒介的发展出现了一些微妙的变化,我们可以观察到新媒体所具有的动员、放大和催化作用在影响事态发展的过程中发挥了强有力的推波助澜作用,一件事件的诞生、传开到达到高峰的时间间隔从以往的数月数日发展到今日的一两天甚至更短。本文主要分为五个部分。首先通过揭示国内外不同传播路径下事件的发酵、股价的变动与以往的不同,从现象上揭示出我们可能要研究的问题。其次系统性阐述了股价波动的理论基础。并从有效市场与行为金融两个角度揭示了股价波动的原理。从网络传播、羊群行为与股价波动相互影响的角度,说明网络传播通过两个路径影响股价波动:传播速率和传播半径。紧接着逐一揭示从WEB1.0到WEB3.0时代的传播现象与传播机制,分别描述了WEB 1.0/WEB2.0/WEB3.0的传播模式与信息作用机制,股价在各种传播介质下的表现。而作为本文重点研究因子的社交网络与媒体深化指标(SCT)通过爬虫技术抓取期间的涉及到关键词“军工”的文本报道数,同时按照规则筛选出其中的新兴独立媒体数作为第二研究因子。基于此,本文研究媒体报道数、新兴独立媒体报道数、宏观等综合外部环境(沪深300指数振幅)、行业环境与体制特征(中证国企指数振幅)对中证军工指数成分股股价波动性(振幅)的影响,据此,构造出实证模型。研究网络舆情对资本市场股价波动的影响是对行为金融学的补充,也是对市场有效性理论的完善。社会化媒体与社交网络的传播深化(SCT)所引致的信息传播变迁对资本市场构成的影响,揭示出崭新的“网络传播深化-股价波动溢出”研究方向。总体而言本文的创新之处主要体现在以下方面:首次研究了社会化媒体与网络变迁对资本市场股价波动的影响;揭示出短期与长期情形下社交网络与社会化媒体变迁(SCT)对股价波动影响的差异性;发现在关于军工股报道上,不断增加的独立媒体数量并未减少媒体市场供给方的偏见或信息扭曲,在舆论欲操纵公众的看法时,多元化媒体并未降低信息受压制或被扭曲的风险,即而熨平资本市场的波动性。另外,独立媒体在短期比起长期对于资本市场(此处指中证军工概念股市场)价格波动影响更为显著。当然,本文局限性与不足仍然不少,如何界定不同类别的传播介质以及如何对不同时间序列上的不同传播介质进行定量这都是难点,另外正如文中所说,不止是外部信息影响股价波动,股价波动也会产生二次信息,这一点会影响到最终的结论。当然,在这之前几乎未有与本文相关甚至相近的研究文献与研究成果,本文更多是一种勇敢的尝试。如果本文能证明或者是侧面揭示了社会媒介发展的变化影响到股价波动或者毫无影响,本文即达到初步的研究目的。
[Abstract]:The influence factors of stock price volatility is very complex, from the macro economy to everyday business, even in the stock price fluctuation itself will produce two times of information and then affect the next stock prices. This is not limited to this. Pay attention to social life is quietly by the new technology and new media, and this change is not just direct, quick access to information, this kind of change is the influence mechanism of things different from the past. Among them, the fluctuation of stock price is along with the development of the media there have been some subtle changes, we can observe the mobilization of new media with the amplification and catalytic role in the impact of this the development has played a strong role in fueling the birth of an event, spread to reach the peak time interval from the previous month the number of days to today one or two days or less. This paper is divided into five parts. Firstly, by revealing the fermentation at home and abroad different propagation paths of the incident, the stock price is different from the past, we may reveal to study the problem from the phenomenon. Then systematically expounds the theoretical basis of stock price fluctuation. And from the two aspects of effective market and financial behavior reveals the principle of the stock price volatility. From the network communication, herd behavior and stock price fluctuation mutual influence angle, indicating that the network spread through two paths affect the stock price volatility: propagation rate and spread radius. Then one by one to reveal the propagation phenomena from WEB1.0 to WEB3.0 generation and propagation mechanism, which describes the communication mode and the information mechanism of WEB 1.0/WEB2.0/WEB3.0 the stock price in a variety of transmission media performance. As a social network and media, this paper focuses on the factors of price index (SCT) by the crawler crawl period The number of reports related to text keywords "Military", at the same time, in accordance with the rules of the number of selected emerging independent media for the second factors. Based on this, this paper reports the number of newly independent media reports, comprehensive macro external environment (Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index amplitude), industry environment and system characteristics (in the index of amplitude) of card card industry index volatility (amplitude) effect, accordingly, constructs an empirical model. The influence of network public opinion research on capital market volatility is the supplement of behavioral finance, but also to improve the market efficiency theory. The spread of social media and social networks to deepen (SCT) effect caused by the change of information dissemination on the capital market, reveal new network communication to deepen the stock volatility spillover "research direction. Overall the main innovation of this paper In the following aspects: first to study the effect of social media and network changes to the capital market volatility; reveals the change of social network and social media for short-term and long-term situations (SCT) differences impact on stock volatility; found in a military unit reported, the number of independent media increasing did not reduce the supply the media market bias or distortion of information, in the public opinion to manipulate public opinion, the media did not reduce the risk of diversified information is suppressed or distorted, volatility and ironing capital market. In addition, the independent media in the short term than for long-term capital market (here refers to the card industry concept stock market price fluctuation) effect is more significant. Of course, the limitations and deficiencies are still a lot of media, how to define the different categories and how different transmission medium in different time sequences of This is a difficulty in quantitative, as the article said, is more than the external information affect the stock price volatility, stock price volatility will produce two information, which will affect the final conclusion. Of course, before this has almost not related to this paper and similar research literature and research results, this paper is more a brave attempt. If this paper can prove or reveal the social media development changes affect the stock price volatility or no effect, this is the purpose of this study is preliminary.

【学位授予单位】：上海外国语大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：G206;F832.51

【参考文献】