“天赋异禀”、“熟能生巧”还是“日久生情”——基于中国证券分析师预测能力的经验证据

发布时间：2018-04-18 08:11

本文选题：证券分析师 + “新财富”最佳分析师　；参考：《经济理论与经济管理》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文选取2001—2013年证券分析师的预测数据作为研究样本,研究证券分析师的预测能力随时间变化的现象及机理。实证检验表明:(1)分析师的预测能力随着经验积累而显著提高;(2)"新财富"最佳分析师较之于一般分析师并未表现出更强的预测能力(即并不存在"天赋异禀");(3)证券分析师预测能力随经验积累而提高并非由于研究能力的提升(即"熟能生巧"),而是通过所在证券公司的平台与所跟进的公司建立了良好的合作关系(即"日久生情")。本文不仅丰富了关于影响证券分析师预测能力因素的相关实证研究,同时创造性地进一步剖析了证券分析师预测能力随经验积累提高的内在机理,其结论对于理解分析师学习成长机制、促进中小投资者保护以及推动中国证券市场理性发展具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:This paper selects the forecast data of securities analysts from 2001 to 2013 as the research sample to study the phenomenon and mechanism of the change of the forecasting ability of the securities analysts with time.Empirical test shows that analysts' forecasting ability increases significantly as experience accumulates. (2) New Fortune's best analysts have not shown greater predictive power than the average analyst (i.e., there are no "gifted claims" / 3) securities.Analysts' ability to forecast increases with experience is not a result of improved research capabilities ("practice makes perfect"), but a good relationship with the companies they follow through the platforms of their securities firms.This paper not only enriches the relevant empirical research on the factors influencing the forecasting ability of securities analysts, but also creatively analyzes the internal mechanism of the improvement of the forecasting ability of securities analysts with the accumulation of experience.The conclusion is of great significance to understand the mechanism of analysts' learning and growth, to promote the protection of small and medium-sized investors and to promote the rational development of China's securities market.
【作者单位】：复旦大学金融研究院;复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71473043)的资助
【分类号】：F832.51

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