管理层预测与分析师预测的相对准确性

发布时间：2018-04-19 12:15

本文选题：管理层盈余预测 + 分析师盈余预测　；参考：《厦门大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：管理层盈余预测和分析师盈余预测是投资者在预期公司盈利状况、做出投资决策时,非常重要的两个信息来源。虽然关于管理层盈余预测准确性和分析师盈余预测准确性的研究有很多,但少有研究将两者盈余预测的准确性进行对比。究竟投资者在什么情况下应该相信管理层的盈余预测,又在什么情况下应该更相信分析师的盈余预测呢? 本文以2009年至2012年沪深两市所有A股上市公司披露的管理层年度盈余预测和与其相匹配的分析师盈余预测为样本,检验了管理层和分析师对每股盈余(EPS)预测的相对准确性。本文的研究结论主要有以下两点：第一,分析师在宏观经济层面具有盈余预测优势。当公司的业绩受GDP、能源价格和利率等宏观经济因素影响较大时,分析师盈余预测比管理层盈余预测更准确。第二,管理层在公司层面具有盈余预测优势。当管理层应对公司经营异常情况(如存货异常积压、产能过剩或者亏损)的措施,以及这个措施对公司收益产生的影响很难被外部人所预期时,管理层盈余预测比分析师盈余预测更准确。本文的研究结论可以帮助投资者在不同的情况下,合理选择相信管理层的盈余预测还是分析师的盈余预测,以形成自己对公司收益的预期并做出投资决策。
[Abstract]:Management earnings forecasts and analysts' earnings forecasts are two important sources of information for investors when they anticipate a company's earnings and make investment decisions.Although there has been a lot of research on the accuracy of management earnings forecasts and analysts' earnings forecasts, few studies have compared the accuracy of the two earnings forecasts.Under what circumstances should investors trust management earnings forecasts, and under what circumstances should analysts' earnings forecasts be more trusted?This paper examines the relative accuracy of the EPS-based earnings per share forecast of management and analysts based on the annual earnings forecasts and the corresponding analysts' earnings forecasts released by all A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen from 2009 to 2012.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, analysts have the advantage of earnings forecasting at the macroeconomic level.Analyst earnings forecasts are more accurate than management earnings forecasts when the company's results are strongly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as GDP, energy prices and interest rates.Second, management has the advantage of earnings forecasting at the corporate level.When management measures to deal with unusual operating conditions (such as inventory overstocking, overcapacity or losses), and the impact of this measure on the earnings of the company are difficult to anticipate by outsiders,Management earnings forecasts are more accurate than analysts' earnings forecasts.The conclusion of this paper can help investors to reasonably choose to believe the earnings forecast of management or the earnings forecast of analysts under different circumstances, in order to form their own expectation of company income and make investment decisions.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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