地方政府性债务对地区工业增长的影响研究：国际经验与中国机制

发布时间：2018-04-21 01:36

本文选题：地方债务 + 基础设施投资　；参考：《复旦大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自2008年全球金融危机以来,中国的地方政府性债务快速膨胀。本文从国际经验和中国机制两方面分析中国政府性债务与经济增长的关系。从跨国历史数据看,各国的政府债务膨胀和违约并非独立随机事件,具有显著的集中爆发性和高度传染性,与世界战争、商品价格剧烈波动,以及世界金融中心资本流向急剧转变等现象密切相关。中国的政府性债务问题既与全球金融危机引发的宏观经济环境变化有关,也与国内独特的作用机制相联系。为了深入剖析中国地方政府性债务对地区工业增长的作用机制,本文构建“工业投资者-地方政府”模型,从债务的双重引资作用角度分析地方政府举债冲动难以遏制的原因。模型论证了以下机制：债务作为地方政府动用资金能力的体现,不仅表现为以直接投资的形式增加GDP,而且能够通过基础设施建设和压低工业用地价格双重渠道吸引工业投资,对当地工业增长起到强烈的杠杆作用。本文的理论模型在传统的地方政府引资竞争模型基础上引入工业用地市场,将工业用地价格作为地方政府的关键决策变量之一；同时对地方政府的预算约束进行拓展,引入地方债务变量和土地出让收入等预算外资金。模型的主要结论是,地方债务能够显著地提高当地工业投资水平,但地方债务对当地的工业用地价格的影响不确定,同时受到地方政府低价出让和工业投资者需求上升两种相反作用力的影响。本文的实证分析采用2003-2007年287个地级及以上城市的面板数据进行分析。新增工业投资采用全国各年微观工业企业数据库匹配加总获得,地方债务数据使用土地出让、地方财政和地方融资平台发行的企业债等作为替代变量。实证结果验证了理论模型的主要结论,支持地方政府性债务的双重引资作用。本文指出,对于不同经济发展条件与禀赋的地区来说,以债务推动工业增长的发展模式面临两类不同的风险：1)经济条件与禀赋较差的地区在引资竞争中处于劣势,未来土地出让收入可能不足以偿还债务；2)经济条件与禀赋较好的地区在引资竞争中将土地资源过度配置到工业部门,导致商住用地资源紧缺、住房价格快速上涨。
[Abstract]:Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China's local government debt has ballooned rapidly. This paper analyzes the relationship between Chinese government debt and economic growth from two aspects: international experience and Chinese mechanism. Looking at transnational historical data, governments' debt inflation and default are not independent random events. They are highly contagious and highly contagious. They are highly volatile in commodity prices in the face of world war. As well as the world financial center capital flow to change sharply and so on phenomenon is closely related. China's government debt problem is not only related to the change of macroeconomic environment caused by the global financial crisis, but also related to the unique domestic mechanism. In order to deeply analyze the mechanism of the local government debt acting on the regional industrial growth, this paper constructs the "industrial investor-local government" model, and analyzes the reasons why it is difficult to curb the borrowing impulse of the local government from the perspective of the dual role of the debt. The model demonstrates the following mechanism: debt, as a manifestation of the ability of local governments to use funds, not only increases GDP in the form of direct investment, but also can attract industrial investment through the dual channels of infrastructure construction and lowering the price of industrial land. Strong leverage over local industrial growth. The theoretical model of this paper introduces the industrial land market on the basis of the traditional competition model of the local government to attract capital, and takes the industrial land price as one of the key decision variables of the local government, at the same time, it extends the budget constraints of the local government. Introduction of local debt variables and land transfer income and other extrabudgetary funds. The main conclusion of the model is that local debt can significantly increase the level of local industrial investment, but the impact of local debt on local industrial land prices is uncertain. At the same time by local governments sell low prices and industrial investors demand rise two counterproductive forces. In this paper, the panel data of 287 prefectural cities and above are used to analyze. The new industrial investment is obtained by matching and summing up the national microcosmic industrial enterprise database, the local debt data is obtained by land transfer, and the corporate debt issued by local finance and local financing platform is taken as the substitute variable. The empirical results verify the main conclusions of the theoretical model and support the dual role of local government debt. This paper points out that for regions with different economic development conditions and endowments, the development model of debt-driven industrial growth faces two different types of risks: 1) regions with poor economic conditions and endowments are at a disadvantage in the competition for investment. Land transfer income in the future may not be enough to pay off debts. (2) areas with good economic conditions and endowments overallocate land resources to the industrial sector in the competition for attracting capital, resulting in a shortage of land resources for commercial and residential use and a rapid rise in housing prices.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F427;F812.5

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