中国潜在财政危机思考——一个基于债务、赤字与总供给的分析框架

发布时间：2018-05-01 11:10

本文选题：潜在财政危机 + 政府债务　；参考：《财政研究》2017年11期

【摘要】：中国没有发生过财政危机,但也不能忽视其潜在财政危机。本文首先从理论层面揭示出,潜在财政危机存在与否,关键取决于政府债务或财政赤字是否有效促进社会总供给增加。进一步,本文利用中国1981-2014年宏观数据,采用VAR模型进行实证检验发现:第一,我国政府债务与财政赤字呈现发散的非均衡关系,政府债务通过加速财政支出扩张对财政赤字及政府债务自身积累产生倒逼促进作用,这意味着我国政府债务存在外生性,并驱动着财政赤字低效率;第二,通过对经济增长效应检验发现,财政赤字行为对劳动生产率、社会资本积累等驱动总供给的作用产生抑制,且外生性的政府债务在加速这种抑制,说明我国潜在财政危机存在。本文研究结论表明,与政府债务规模持续膨胀相伴随的是财政赤字在总供给方面的低效率和危害持续积累,对我国实体经济造成巨大压力和冲击,加强我国潜在财政危机防范刻不容缓。
[Abstract]:China has not had a financial crisis, but can not ignore its potential financial crisis. This paper first reveals from the theoretical level that the existence of the potential financial crisis depends on whether the government debt or fiscal deficit can effectively promote the increase of the total social supply. Furthermore, using the macro data of China from 1981 to 2014 and using the VAR model, we find that: first, the relationship between government debt and fiscal deficit is disequilibrium. By accelerating the expansion of fiscal expenditure, government debt contributes to the fiscal deficit and the accumulation of government debt itself, which means that our government debt is exogenous and drives the fiscal deficit to be inefficient. By testing the effect of economic growth, it is found that the fiscal deficit behavior inhibits the role of total supply driven by labor productivity and social capital accumulation, and the external government debt accelerates this inhibition, which indicates that there is a potential financial crisis in China. The conclusion of this paper shows that the low efficiency and harmful accumulation of the fiscal deficit in the total supply are accompanied by the continuous expansion of the government debt, which has caused great pressure and impact to the real economy of our country. It is urgent to strengthen the prevention of potential financial crisis in China.
【作者单位】：云南财经大学公共政策研究中心;
【基金】：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“公共财政安全监测预警机制研究”(12JZD031) 国家自然科学基金地区科学基金“地方债风险时空转移及其系统性风险研究:风险源识别、路径机理与预警控制”(71763029);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金“地方政府债务风险动因挖掘与制度修正研究:基于权责时空分离下的责任转移预期模型”(71303207) 中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2017T100716)的资助
【分类号】：F812.5

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