转型期房地产A股并购价值分析

发布时间：2018-05-02 07:02

本文选题：转型 + 房地产　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2014年开始的新一轮房地产调整周期与2008、2012年相比存在较大不同,流动性层面的变化将愈发贴近于整体经济转型的背景,M2增速过快与过低将被一定区间内的稳定所替代,而房地产的行业政策也将逐步回归市场化,由此导致的区域城市分割与企业经营差异将会不断强化,而四大因素结合在一起,将使得房地产行业的演绎更加回归真实需求的本质,也就是人口结构变化所决定的工业化演进周期变局。而根据人口结构大致估算可知,国内后续房地产发展依赖于改善型需求带来新一轮增长可能要等到2020年以后,那么在目前这种房地产销量、价格增速弹性逐步下移的初始阶段,房地产A股的股权价值在2010年之后就处于相比此前周期明显的较低位置,预计在转型期这种相对低位会维持较长时间,以此,房地产A股如何获得超额收益,将更多的取决于并购价值体现。在深刻解析2014年上半年金地集团、金融街、新黄浦股价表现异常的同时,本文借鉴了美国上市公司中Pulte Homes、Centex合并和万豪集团的业务分拆两大案例,认为当房地产行业进入转型期相对低估成为一种常态时,并购价值理应能够展现为股价上的超额收益,当然,这种并购价值一方面需要上市公司本身处于相对较低的估值水平,另一方面则是并购价值是否能最终衍生出新的增长动力或者模式。围绕此出发,本文以行业整合者、有望强强联合、房地产业务之外特殊价值三项删选标准,认为在新常态经济增速和房地产销量趋于下移的过程中,万科、招商、荣盛发展、泛海控股、陆家嘴、张江高科、华侨城符合并购价值最终展现为股价超额收益的潜在标的。另外,本文的创新在于通过研究比较房地产A股如何在新常态下改变现有市场定价的模式,更重要的是在当前经济增长中枢面临回落,而普遍周期性行业都会经历估值相对较低的局面时,提出了一种通过合理展现并购价值从而带动一部分周期股股价重估的路径。
[Abstract]:The new real estate adjustment cycle that began in 2014 is quite different from 2008. The change in liquidity level will be closer to the background of the overall economic transformation. M 2 growth too fast and too low will be replaced by stability in a certain range. And the industry policy of real estate will return to marketization step by step. As a result, the differences between regional urban segmentation and enterprise management will be continuously strengthened, and the four major factors will be combined together. It will make the deduction of real estate industry return to the essence of real demand, that is, the change of industrialization evolution cycle determined by the change of population structure. According to the approximate estimate of the population structure, the following domestic real estate development depends on improved demand to bring a new round of growth after 2020. Well, in the initial stage of the gradual decline in the current sales volume of real estate, the elasticity of price growth is gradually moving down. The equity value of real estate A shares has been significantly lower after 2010 than in the previous cycle. It is expected that this relatively low level will be maintained for a longer period of time during the transition period, so that how can real estate A shares get excess returns? Will depend more on M & A value embodiment. While deeply analyzing the abnormal performance of Jindi Group, Financial Street and New Huangpu stock price in the first half of 2014, this paper draws lessons from the two major cases of Pulte HomesCon Centex merger and Marriott Group business division in the United States listed companies. It is believed that when the real estate industry enters the transition period, the relative undervaluation of the real estate industry becomes the norm, and the M & A value should be shown as the excess return on the stock price. Of course, this kind of M & A value needs the listed company to be at a relatively low valuation level on the one hand. On the other hand, whether the value of M & A can ultimately derive a new growth momentum or model. Starting from this, this paper, by three deleted criteria of industry integrator, hopeful strong combination, special value outside real estate business, believes that in the process of the new normal economic growth rate and real estate sales tend to move downward, Vanke, investment, prosperity and development. Pan Hai Holdings, Lu Jiazui, Zhang Jiang Gaoke and overseas Chinese City meet the value of M & A as potential targets for the ultimate excess return on stock prices. In addition, the innovation of this paper is to compare the real estate A shares in the new normal how to change the existing market pricing model, more importantly, in the current economic growth center facing a decline. When the general cyclical industries experience relatively low valuations, a way to revalue some cyclical stocks by reasonably displaying the value of mergers and acquisitions is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.51

【共引文献】