非经常性损益持续性及价值相关性研究

发布时间：2018-05-04 15:25

本文选题：非经常性损益 + 持续性　；参考：《华东交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的发展社会的进步，资本市场在经济运行中的作用愈发重要，资本市场是否能够高效运行直接影响甚至左右整个国民经济的发展，而资本市场发育程度最重要的特征之一，便是对信息的反应能力。因此，，我们在有效市场假说中按照信息反应的多寡加以区分，能否对企业发布的信息所包含的内容进行有效定价。非经常性损益这一概念自1999年引入以来，经历2001、2004、2007的数次修订完善，2008年又对其定义有了新的界定和划分。中国证券监督管理委员会（以下简称“证监会”）对非经常性损益规定的屡次出台足以说明其重要性，原因有二，一是非经常性损益在企业中发生的频率越来越高；二是，非经常性损益信息披露有很多需要界定、规范的内容。在当前理论界和学术界对非经常性损益的研究主要是侧重于扣除非经常性损益后的评估和非经常性损益的界定及披露，而对非经常性损益项目构成事项的研究却很少，其项目构成在盈利预测中是否会发生作用？为深入研究非经常性损益，我们从偶发性与否和经营性与否两个维度进行细分归类，将非经常性损益分为非偶发性非经营损益、偶发性非经营损益和偶发性经营损益三个部分，本文又将2008年规定中的21类非经常性损益的小类归为这三个部分；从理论上说非经常性损益项目构成存在持续性，而在现实世界中，随着利益多元化的到来，一些频繁发生的非经常性损益也是存在的。基于此，本文对非经常性损益的项目构成进行持续性及价值相关性研究。通过借鉴经典价格模型的运用及Sloan的研究方法，对我国2008年——2012年A股制造业上市公司非经常性损益持续性及价值相关性的实证研究发现，非偶发性非经营损益具有持续性及价值相关性，而偶发性损益不具有持续性及价值相关性；但是非偶发性非经营损益的持续性及价值相关性较扣除非经常性损益后的净利润要弱。这就告诉我们在平常的盈利预测评估中，我们不能简单的将非经常性损益扣除，而是应该通盘考虑像非偶发性非经营的损益，比如：非流动资产处置损益、资金占用费等。本文虽然创新性的从非经常性损益的分类上着手，对其项目构成进行研究，得出了结论，为投资者和监管层提供参考，但是，这也是本文的缺陷之一，该分类方法的合理性和科学性有待商榷。同时，由于企业采用的数据只有五年，无法对其进行面板分析，结论的解释性不强。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the role of capital market in economic operation is becoming more and more important. Whether the capital market can operate efficiently directly affects or even affects the development of the whole national economy. One of the most important characteristics of capital market development is the ability to respond to information. Therefore, in the efficient market hypothesis, we distinguish the information response according to the amount of information response, and whether we can effectively price the content of the information published by the enterprise. Since the introduction of the concept of non-recurrent profit and loss in 1999, it has been revised and perfected several times in 2001 / 2004 / 2007. In 2008, the concept of non-recurrent profit and loss has a new definition and division. The repeated issuance of non-recurrent profit and loss provisions by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (hereinafter referred to as "CSRC") is sufficient to illustrate its importance for two reasons: first, non-recurrent gains and losses are occurring more and more frequently in enterprises; and second, Non-recurrent profit and loss information disclosure needs to be defined, standardized content. The current theoretical and academic research on non-recurrent profit and loss is mainly focused on the evaluation after deducting non-recurrent profit and loss and the definition and disclosure of non-recurrent profit and loss. Will the project composition play a role in the profit forecast? In order to study non-recurrent profit and loss in depth, we subdivide the non-recurrent profit and loss into three parts: non-incidental non-operating profit and loss, incidental non-operating profit and loss and incidental operating profit or loss. In this paper, 21 categories of non-recurrent profit and loss in 2008 are classified into these three parts. In theory, non-recurrent profit and loss items are persistent, but in the real world, with the arrival of diversification of interests, Some frequent recurring gains and losses also exist. Based on this, this paper studies the sustainability and value correlation of non-recurrent profit and loss. By using the application of classical price model and the research method of Sloan, the empirical study of non-recurrent profit and loss sustainability and value correlation of A-share manufacturing listed companies in China from 2008 to 2012 is found. Non-incidental non-operating profit and loss has continuity and value correlation, but incidental profit and loss does not have continuity and value correlation; However, the sustainability and value correlation of non-incidental non-operating profit and loss are weaker than that after deducting non-recurrent profit and loss. This tells us that in the ordinary profit forecast evaluation, we can not simply deduct the non-recurrent profit and loss, but should consider the non-incidental non-operating profit and loss as a whole, such as: the non-current assets disposal profit and loss, the capital occupation fee and so on. Although this article innovatively starts from the classification of non-recurrent profit and loss, studies its project composition, draws the conclusion, provides the reference for the investor and the supervisory level, but this also is one of the defects of this paper. The rationality and scientific nature of the classification method are open to question. At the same time, because the data used by the enterprise is only five years, it can not be analyzed by panel, so the explanation of the conclusion is not strong.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F406.7

【参考文献】