我国地方政府债务风险及控制研究

发布时间：2018-05-05 18:41

本文选题：政府债务 + 风险评价　；参考：《安徽大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国地方政府债务问题是当前学界、政界的一个研究热点,也是难点所在。地方政府债务有很大的风险,美国巨额债务问题的形成和危害是明显的例子。世界各国政府对债务风险进行重点研究,希望能得出有效的测量方法和控制机制以防范和化解债务危机。地方政府债务是一个很难被研究透彻的问题：一方面各个国家的制度以及经济条件互不相同,其他国家的成功的典范难以适用本国,另一方面经济体系复杂而且庞大,难以形成全面而有效的调查研究。“千里之行始于足下”,虽然困难重重,本文依然以数据为基础,在目前国内普遍认同的或更具解释性的债务风险指标的框架内,调整并建立新的债务风险指标,对地方政府债务进行实证分析,得出一般结论。在财政学史上,财政分权理论的建立是财政理论的一大突破,在此理论的指导下,各国政府为发展经济而采取不同程度的举债措施,因为理论上适当的借债行为对经济的发展有一定的刺激作用,但由于各国家地区的条件、环境以及政策不一样,很多国家或者地区出现了债务危机,比较典型的就是希腊债务危机问题。 1994年实行了分税制改革以来,中央政府收取了大部分的税收收入,而地方政府的收入缩减。地方政府为了满足地方经济发展的需要而采取借债措施,使得地方政府债务逐渐积累,债务问题日益严重,债务风险系数逐步提高。2008年金融危机后,为保证经济增长率的稳定增长和就业率的提高,政府采取了积极的财政政策,这在一定程度上给地方政府造成很大的配套资金的需求压力,因为很多地方政府的财政支出长期大于财政收入,地方基础设施也不健全。大部分地方政府只能以举债的方式获得资金来发展经济,这使得地方政府债务的规模在短期内迅速膨胀。我国地域辽阔,环境各异,各地区间的历史,习俗相差很大,经济的发展也不平衡,特殊的经济、政治、文化环境使得我国的地方政府债务也呈现出和其他发达国家与新兴国家不同的特征,因此不能照搬西方国家或其他地区的经济政策和发展模式,应从我国各级地方政府的实际经济情况来研究债务风险问题。本文首先对地方政府债务进行定义,进一步理清了目前我国地方政府债务的现状,依据财政部的统计,至2013年年底我国地方政府债务总额为14万亿；重点分析了我国地方政府债务的成因,认为主要从国家宏观经济政策、经济体制、以及行政管理体制等考虑；统计了长沙、贵阳、沈阳、合肥、南昌和兰州六个城市2010-2012年的政府直接债务和隐性债务的平面数据,使用SPSS软件作主成分分析,得出结论：如果地方政府需要严格控制增量,如果本年需要新增债务量,就必须考虑本年的经济增速和收入增加量,而且在支出方面,单位支出需要偿还的债务最好小于或等于单位支出所产生的经济效益；最后,提出防范我国地方政府债务的对策建议：明确地方政府的事权财权与市场边界,进一步加强地方政府财源建设,并且建立科学有效的债务偿还的制度体系与管理机制,增加地方债务的透明度。
[Abstract]:The problem of local government debt in China is a hot spot of research in the current academic field, and it is also a difficult point. Local government debt has a great risk. The formation and harm of the huge debt problem in the United States is an obvious example. The government of the world focuses on the debt risk, hoping to get effective measurement methods and control mechanisms. To prevent and resolve the debt crisis, local government debt is a difficult problem to be thoroughly studied: on the one hand, the system and economic conditions of each country are not the same, the success of other countries is difficult to apply to the country, on the other hand, the economic system is complex and huge, and it is difficult to form a comprehensive and effective investigation. "A thousand miles" It begins with a lot of difficulties. This article is still based on data, in the framework of the commonly recognized or more interpretative debt risk indicators in China, to adjust and establish new debt risk indicators, to make an empirical analysis of local government debt, and to draw a general conclusion. In the history of finance, the establishment of fiscal decentralization theory is wealth. A breakthrough in political theory, under the guidance of this theory, governments of all countries take different levels of debt raising measures for the development of the economy, because the appropriate borrowing behavior in theory has a certain stimulating effect on the economic development, but because of the conditions, environment and policies of various countries and regions, many countries or regions have been in danger of debt. This is a typical Greek debt crisis.
Since the reform of the tax sharing system in 1994, the central government has collected most of the tax revenue, and the local government's income has been reduced. In order to meet the needs of local economic development, the local government has taken the debt measures, which makes the local government debt gradually accumulated, the debt problem is increasingly serious, the debt risk factor has gradually increased the financial crisis of.2008 years. In order to ensure the steady growth of economic growth rate and the increase of employment rate, the government has adopted a positive financial policy, which, to a certain extent, caused the demand pressure for the local government to a large amount of supporting funds, because many local governments have long outlay the financial revenues and the local infrastructure is not perfect. The government can only obtain funds from the way of borrowing to develop the economy, which makes the scale of local government debt expand rapidly in the short term. China has a vast territory, different environment, the history of the regions, customs are different, the economic development is not balanced, the special economic, political and cultural environment makes the local government debt in our country also present. With the different characteristics of other developed countries and emerging countries, we can not copy the economic policies and development models of western countries or other regions, and should study the problem of debt risk from the actual economic situation of local governments at all levels in our country. This paper first makes a definition of local government debt, and further clarifies the current local government debt in China. According to the statistics of the Ministry of finance, the total amount of local government debt in China is 14 trillion at the end of 2013. The cause of local government debt in China is analyzed. It is considered mainly from the national macroeconomic policy, the economic system, and the administrative management system, and the six cities of Changsha, Guiyang, Shenyang, Hefei, Nanchang and Lanzhou. The city's 2010-2012 year government direct and recessive debt plane data, using SPSS software as a principal component analysis, draws a conclusion that if local governments need to control the increment strictly, if the new debt is needed this year, it is necessary to consider the economic growth and income increase in this year, and in terms of expenditure, unit spending needs to be repaid. The debt should be less than or equal to the economic benefit produced by the unit expenditure. Finally, it puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to prevent the local government debt in China: to clarify the power and financial rights of local government and the market boundary, to further strengthen the construction of local government financial resources, and to establish a scientific and effective system and management mechanism of debt repayment, and increase the place of local government. The transparency of debt.

【学位授予单位】：安徽大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.5

【参考文献】