中期预算制度对债务规模约束有效吗

发布时间：2018-05-28 15:57

本文选题：中期预算晋级 + 债务规模约束　；参考：《财贸经济》2017年04期

【摘要】：我国当前债务规模约束的现实需求和财政预算领域的政策导向都显示推行中期预算(中期财政规划)将是下一阶段改革的重心。本文基于世界银行发布的1991-2008年178个国家(地区)的数据对中期预算对债务规模约束的有效性进行了验证,发现中期预算的实施有助于约束政府的债务规模,并在中期预算实施初始阶段更为有效。本文对中期预算的建立和发展(从不实施中期预算到开始实施或从初级阶段到高级阶段)的影响因素开展实证研究,发现债务规模、实施中期预算的时长、地域影响、国际组织推动和国家经济发达程度等因素对中期预算阶段递进都具有显著影响。其中,债务规模程度对中期预算阶段发展呈现双向影响:当债务占GDP的比重高于60%国际警戒线时,债务规模越大,越表现为维持现状(即不进行"晋级");反之,当低于60%国际警戒线时,债务规模越大,中期预算更容易"晋级"。
[Abstract]:The realistic demand of the current debt scale constraint and the policy orientation in the fiscal budget field both indicate that the implementation of the medium-term budget (medium-term fiscal planning) will be the focus of the next stage of the reform. Based on the data of 178 countries (regions) published by the World Bank from 1991 to 2008, this paper verifies the effectiveness of the medium-term budget in restricting the size of the debt, and finds that the implementation of the medium-term budget can help to constrain the size of the government's debt. And in the medium-term budget implementation of the initial phase is more effective. This paper makes an empirical study on the factors influencing the establishment and development of the medium-term budget (from the implementation of the medium-term budget to the beginning of the budget or from the initial stage to the advanced stage), and finds out the scale of debt, the duration of the implementation of the medium-term budget, and the regional impact. Factors such as the promotion of international organizations and the degree of national economic development have a significant impact on the medium-term budget stage. Among them, the scale of debt has a two-way effect on the development of the medium-term budget stage: when the proportion of debt to GDP exceeds the 60% international warning line, the larger the debt scale is, the more it is shown that the status quo is maintained (that is, no "promotion" is carried out; conversely, The bigger the debt is, the easier it is for the medium-term budget to "jump" when it is below the 60 percent international alert.
【作者单位】：复旦大学公共经济学系;上海市公务员局;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金“政府会计制度改革与政府绩效改善研究”(12BJY135);国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国特色公共经济理论与政策研究”(11&ZD073) 上海市浦江人才计划项目“我国财政资金约束机制重构和政府治理能力提升:制度设计和对策研究”(14PJC010)
【分类号】：F812.3;F812.5

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