货币政策对上市公司投资行为影响的分析

发布时间：2018-06-17 04:46

本文选题：上市公司 + 投资行为　；参考：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：我国股票市场经过二十余年的发展,无论从上市公司数量还是股票市值总额都达到了很高水平,然而相对于欧美发达国家的股票市场,我国的股票市场还不够成熟,股票市场内部机制有待完善。2008年金融危机之后,国家为提振经济而实行了四万亿投资计划,而同时配套的宽松的货币政策导致国内M2增长速度过快,广义货币量已经超过100万亿元。宽松的货币政策造成的流动性除了为政府投资提供保障外还有大量资金进入了资本市场,而流入资本市场的资金有多少能够正在转化为实体经济的投资对于我国的经济健康发展有着重要意义,因此研究宏观货币政策对上市公司投资的影响具有重要的理论和实践意义。以往对上市公司投资行为研究主要是从企业财务状况和资本结构等方面做出的,主要研究是在微观层面进行,而对国家宏观经济政策如何影响到上市公司的投资则很少研究,本文的研究正是弥补了这方面的研究空白,以上市公司的利润额、股权融资额、债务融资额为中介指标,通过两个阶段的传导机制,其中第一阶段为货币政策如何影响中介指标,第二阶段为中介指标如何影响上市公司的投资,将上市公司的投资支出与宏观货币政策的变化联系起来,达到宏观经济政策与微观企业行为的有机统一,同时为宏观经济政策的制定者提供微观理论基础。本文采用了理论分析与实证研究相结合的方法,对上市公司投资支出与影响上市公司投资支出的各个宏观层面与微观层面的因素之间存在的关系进行了分析,运用我国股票市场上市公司的财务数据,运用ADF单位根检验、协整检验、双对数多元回归模型,在传导机制的第一阶段以广义货币量M2为解释变量,三种传导机制的中介指标为被解释变量,分别做实证分析,验证货币政策是否能够引起中介指标的显著变化,保证传导机制的第一阶段畅通。而在传导机制的第二阶段则以上市公司为购建固定资产、无形资产和其他长期资产支付的现金为被解释变量,以股权融资额、债务融资额、利润为解释变量,通过研究货币政策三种传导机制的中介指标与上市公司投资支出的关系,来验证传导机制的第二阶段是否畅通,通过两个阶段、三种传导机制的研究,得出的结论是：货币政策影响上市公司投资的三种传导机制在由货币政策变化到中介指标变化的第一阶段能够顺利地传导,而在第二阶段由中介指标到上市公司投资的传导中,股权融资额无论是在大型上市公司还是小型上市公司都无法顺利传导,利润额与债务融资额只对大型上市公司而言能够顺利传导,对于小型上市公司而言三种中介指标均无法顺利传导。从总体上看宏观货币政策主要是通过影响上市公司的负债融资额和利润来影响上市公司的投资支出,而股权融资额对上市公司的投资影响不大,主要原因在于我国资本市场不成熟,很多大型国有上市公司对股权融资获得的资金并未真正用于投资支出,而是解决企业内部或母公司资金紧张问题,并且由于市场利率并未完全实现市场化与国有企业软预算约束问题的存在,使得上市公司的投资行为对宏观货币政策的敏感性也不高。本文提出的政策建议是：首先要加强利率市场化改革步伐,使市场利率能够充分反映货币政策的变动,并通过影响资金成本对上市公司的投资收益造成影响,从而影响到上市公司的投资行为。其次要减少地方政府对银行信贷的干预,并严格控制国有企业的软预算约束机制,使国有上市公司的投资效率提高,减少重复低效的投资支出,而后还要完善股票市场对募集资金用途的法律监管,减少上市公司股权募集资金被母公司占用的情况,使股权募集资金真正用于上市公司的投资支出,最后要加强上市公司的内部融资,并处理好内部融资与股东分红之间的矛盾。
[Abstract]:After more than twenty years of development, China's stock market has reached a high level in both the number of listed companies and the total stock market value. However, compared with the stock market in developed countries in Europe and the United States, our stock market is not mature enough. The internal mechanism of the stock market needs to improve the financial crisis of.2008 years. The four trillion investment plan has been carried out, and the loose monetary policy at the same time has led to the rapid growth of M2 in China, and the broad currency has already exceeded 100 trillion yuan. The liquidity of loose monetary policy, in addition to providing guarantee for government investment, has a large amount of capital into the capital market, and how much money can be invested in the capital market. The investment that is being transformed into the real economy is of great significance to the healthy development of China's economy. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of macro monetary policy on the investment of listed companies.
The previous research on the investment behavior of listed companies is mainly from the financial situation and capital structure of the enterprises. The main research is on the micro level, but how the national macroeconomic policy affects the investment of the listed companies is seldom studied. The research of this paper makes up the blank of this research, and the profit of the listed companies. The amount of water, the amount of equity financing and the amount of debt financing are the intermediary indicators, through the transmission mechanism of two stages, in which the first stage is how the monetary policy affects the intermediary indicators. The second stage is how the intermediary index affects the investment of the listed companies, linking the investment expenditure of the listed companies with the changes of macro monetary policy to achieve the macro economy. The organic unity of policy and micro enterprise behavior, at the same time, it provides a micro theoretical foundation for macroeconomic policymakers.
Based on the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical research, this paper analyzes the relationship between the investment expenditure of listed companies and the factors that affect the macro level and micro level of the investment expenditure of listed companies. Using the financial data of the listed companies in the stock market of our country, the ADF unit root test, the co integration test, and the double pairs are used. The multiple regression model, in the first stage of the transmission mechanism, takes the generalized monetary quantity M2 as the explanatory variable. The intermediate index of the three transmission mechanisms is interpreted as an explanatory variable. The empirical analysis is made to verify whether the monetary policy can cause significant changes in the intermediary indicators and ensure the first phase of the transmission mechanism. The second stage of the transmission mechanism. In order to verify the second stages of the transmission mechanism, the second phase of the transmission mechanism is verified by the relationship between the intermediary indexes of the three transmission mechanisms of monetary policy and the investment support of the listed companies by taking the cash as the explanatory variable for the listed companies to buy and build the fixed assets, the intangible assets and the other long-term assets. Through two stages and three transmission mechanisms, the conclusion is that the monetary policy affects the three transmission mechanism of the listed company investment in the first stage of the change from the monetary policy to the intermediary index, and in the second stage, the medium refers to the transmission of the listed company investment. Both large listed companies and small listed companies are unable to conduct smoothly, and the amount of profits and debt financing can only be carried out smoothly for large listed companies. For small listed companies, the three intermediary indicators can not be conducted smoothly.
In general, macro monetary policy mainly affects the investment expenditure of listed companies by influencing the debt financing amount and profit of listed companies, and the amount of equity financing has little impact on the investment of listed companies. The main reason is that the capital market is not mature in China, and the funds obtained by many large state-owned listed companies have not been obtained. It is really used to invest in investment, but to solve the problem of capital tension within the enterprise or the parent company, and because the market interest rate is not completely marketed and the soft budget constraints of the state-owned enterprises exist, the sensitivity of the investment behavior of the listed companies to the macro monetary policy is not high. The pace of market-oriented reform of strong interest rate makes the market interest rate fully reflect the change of monetary policy and influence the investment income of listed companies by influencing the cost of capital, thus affecting the investment behavior of listed companies. Secondly, it is necessary to reduce the local government's dry precondition to the bank credit and strictly control the soft budget constraint machine of the state-owned enterprises. In order to improve the investment efficiency of the state-owned listed companies, reduce the cost of duplication of inefficient investment, and then improve the legal supervision of the stock market for the use of fund raising, reduce the situation of the shares raised by the listed companies by the parent company, so that the equity raising funds are really used for the investment expenditure of the listed companies. Finally, the public listed companies should be strengthened. The company's internal financing and handle the contradiction between internal financing and shareholder dividends.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F822.0;F275;F832.51

【参考文献】