基于专家荐股信息的股民投资决策模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-20 08:35

本文选题：股民投资决策 + 荐股信息　；参考：《大连理工大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：决策是基于信息的,信息在决策过程中能对结果产生影响,是投资者在投资决策过程中的核心要素。荐股信息作为股评专家发布的具有明确措辞和直接操作性的综合性结论,是股民投资决策的重要信息参考来源。作为股民投资决策行为研究领域的重要分支,许多学者从心理学或者社会学的角度出发对股民投资决策的影响因素进行了深入的研究,然而鲜有研究从股民关注的荐股信息价值角度出发,探究广大股民的投资决策问题。本文在股评专家荐股信息价值验证的基础上,通过挖掘股评专家的历史荐股行为信息,研究股票市场信息不对称背景下的股民投资决策问题。本文首先整理了股民投资决策与荐股信息的相关研究,然后在股评专家荐股信息价值验证的基础上,挖掘专家的荐股信息,从股评专家群体行为分析的角度出发,构建基于专家荐股信息的股民投资决策模型,辅助股民做投资决策。具体开展了两个研究：研究1,专家荐股信息价值验证研究。采用事件研究法,通过对比股评专家推荐的股票样本与大盘样本的收益率,探究股评专家荐股信息的价值存在。本研究结果为进一步挖掘股评专家的荐股行为信息、辅助股民投资决策提供了强有力的支撑,为本文的下一步研究奠定了基础。研究2,基于专家荐股信息的股民投资决策模型。首先,构建“专家-股票”二部网络,定量化描述股票市场中股评专家与股票之间多对多的荐股关系；然后,从股评专家历史的荐股行为出发,构建股评专家荐股档案,定量描述每一位股评专家的荐股能力；最后,从股评专家群体的绩效构成和风险构成角度出发,建立股票的股评专家构成分析模型,定量化评估股票价值,并在此基础上构建投资决策模型,辅助股民进行投资决策。最后,总结了相关研究结论,在此基础上,分析了本研究的不足之处,提出了未来可能的拓展研究。
[Abstract]:Decision making is based on information, which can influence the result in the decision-making process, and is the core element of investors' investment decision-making process. As a comprehensive conclusion with clear wording and direct operation issued by stock appraisal experts, recommendation information is an important reference source for investors to make investment decisions. As an important branch of the research field of investors' investment decision-making behavior, many scholars have conducted in-depth research on the influencing factors of shareholders' investment decision-making from the perspective of psychology or sociology. However, few studies have explored the investment decision of the shareholders from the perspective of the information value of the stock recommendation. Based on the verification of the value of stock recommendation information, this paper studies the investors' investment decision under the background of asymmetric information in the stock market by digging out the historical information of the stock evaluation experts. This paper first collates the relevant research of investors' investment decision and recommendation information, and then, on the basis of verifying the value of recommendation information of stock appraisal experts, excavates the recommended stock information of experts, and sets out from the angle of group behavior analysis of stock review experts. The investment decision model based on expert recommendation information is constructed to assist investors to make investment decisions. Carried out two specific research: research 1, expert recommendation information value verification research. By comparing the stock samples recommended by stock review experts with the return rate of large market samples, this paper explores the value of stock recommendation information in stock review experts by means of event research. The results of this study provide a strong support for further excavating the information of the recommended stock behavior of the stock appraisal experts and assist the investors' investment decision, and lay a foundation for the next research of this paper. Research 2, the investment decision model based on expert recommendation information. First of all, we construct the "expert-stock" network to quantitatively describe the many-to-many relationship between the experts and the stock in the stock market, and then, starting from the history of the recommendation of the expert, we construct the stock recommendation file of the expert. Finally, from the point of view of the performance composition and risk composition of the stock appraisal expert group, a stock appraisal expert composition analysis model is established to quantitatively evaluate the stock value. On this basis, the investment decision model is constructed to assist shareholders to make investment decision. Finally, this paper summarizes the relevant research conclusions, and then analyzes the shortcomings of this study, and puts forward the possible development of the future research.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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