中小板市场IPO效应实证检验及时效性分析

发布时间：2018-06-22 14:56

本文选题：IPO效应 + 中小企业版　；参考：《河南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：2004年5月17日，经国务院和中国证监会研究决定并批复同意，中小企业版块在深圳证券交易所主板市场内正式设立。2004年5月27日，深交所为中小板举行了板块启动仪式，6月25日又举行了首次上市仪式，新和成（002001）、宏大兴业（002002）等8家公司正式挂牌交易。中小企业板是我国为设立创业板并最终构建多层次资本市场所进行的探索性尝试，从某种意义上讲中小板是中国特色股票市场。从设立至今，中小板已经走过了10个年头，市场运作日渐成熟，上市公司的数量不断扩大，已成为我国资本市场不可或缺的组成部分。但通过观察中小板指数我们不难看出，中小板市场处在一个极不稳定的状态，中小板指数最高点达到了7493.29点，而最低点达到了1377.72点。指数是市场运行变化的重要指标，，而背后的实质则是上市公司的经营业绩状况。中小板指数的巨大波动说明上市公司的业绩存在不稳定现象，为了研究这一问题笔者特别引入“IPO”效应”这一概念。 IPO效应反应了这样一种现象：上市公司在首次招股之后经营业绩普遍下降，显著低于上市前一年，且在上市后3～5年内的经营业绩也普遍低于上市前的平均水平。Jain和Kini在1994年首次提出了IPO效应之后，上市公司的真实业绩水平再次引发了国内外学者和投资者的关注。各国学者通过不同的验证方法，对全球多个股票市场的上市公司作了实证研究分析并得出了一些创新性的结论，在此过程中取得了丰硕的研究成果。通过对IPO效应的研究与验证，可以很好的解读上市公司在IPO前后经营业绩的变化，并为中小企业的长期发展提出一些合理的建议，进而不断完善我国的股票市场和资本市场。股票市场不但是公司进行融资的重要渠道，同时也是股东进行投资的重要渠道。公司业绩的跌宕起伏必定使公司的股票价格震荡不断，加之机构投资者的参与，中小股东在股票市场上被反复绞杀也就成为了必然。当前，有人把中国的股市称之为“猴市”，笔者认为在某种程度上形容的十分恰当。投机氛围过重，缺乏稳健的价值投资理念，是中国股票市场存在的严重问题。基于以上原因，研究IPO效应的相关问题就显得十分必要。本文以2004年～2007年在中小板首发上市的公司作为研究样本，在搜集样本公司核心财务数据的基础上，通过构建模拟公司和计算模拟公司的业绩评价指标，对全体样本的经营业绩水平做出初步的描述性判断。之后又运用可信度检验和单样本t检验对样本公司在IPO前后经营业绩的变化情况作了更为准确的计量分析并得出了相关结论。在实证分析的基础上，笔者紧密结合我国的宏观经济环境和证券市场环境，对我国中小板市场在发展过程中存在的问题作了阐述，并据此提出了一些对策，以期能够为我国的股票市场更加合理有序的运作提供借鉴。
[Abstract]:On May 17, 2004, after the decision of the State Council and the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and with the approval, the small and medium-sized enterprises were formally established in the main board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. On May 27, 2004, Shenzhen Stock Exchange held a plate launch ceremony for small and medium board, June 25 held an initial listing ceremony, Xinhe Cheng (002001), Grand Societe Generale (002002) and other eight companies officially listed. The SME board is an exploratory attempt to set up the gem and finally construct the multi-level capital market in our country. In a sense, the SME board is the stock market with Chinese characteristics. Since its establishment, small and medium-sized boards have gone through 10 years, the market operation has matured day by day, the number of listed companies has been expanding, has become an indispensable part of the capital market in China. However, it is not difficult to see that the market is in a very unstable state, with the highest point reaching 7493.29 points and the lowest point reaching 1377.72 points. Index is an important index of market operation change, and the essence behind it is the operating performance of listed companies. The huge fluctuations in the index of small and medium-sized boards indicate that the performance of listed companies is unstable. In order to study this problem, the author introduces the concept of "IPO" effect. The IPO effect reflects the phenomenon that the operating performance of listed companies generally declines after initial public offering, which is significantly lower than that of the year before listing. After the IPO effect was first put forward by Jain and Kini in 1994, the real performance of listed companies again attracted the attention of domestic and foreign scholars and investors. Through different verification methods, scholars from various countries have made empirical research and analysis on listed companies in many stock markets around the world, and have drawn some innovative conclusions, and have achieved fruitful research results in the process. Through the research and verification of IPO effect, we can interpret the changes of operating performance of listed companies before and after IPO, and put forward some reasonable suggestions for the long-term development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and then continuously improve the stock market and capital market of our country. Stock market is not only an important channel for financing, but also an important channel for shareholders to invest. The ups and downs of the company's performance must make the company's stock price fluctuate continuously, together with the participation of the institutional investors, the minority shareholders in the stock market has been repeatedly strangled. At present, some people call China's stock market "monkey market", and I think it is quite appropriate to describe it to some extent. Excessive speculative atmosphere and lack of sound value investment concept are serious problems in Chinese stock market. Based on the above reasons, it is necessary to study the IPO effect. Based on the core financial data collected from 2004 to 2007, this paper takes the listed companies listed on the small and medium-sized board as the research samples, and constructs the performance evaluation indexes of the simulated companies and the simulated companies. This paper makes a preliminary descriptive judgment on the operating performance level of all samples. Then the reliability test and the single sample t test are used to analyze the change of operating performance of the sample company before and after IPO more accurately and the relevant conclusions are obtained. On the basis of the empirical analysis, the author closely combines the macroeconomic environment and the securities market environment of our country, and expounds the problems existing in the development of the small and medium-sized board market of our country, and puts forward some countermeasures accordingly. In order to provide a more rational and orderly operation of the stock market in China.
【学位授予单位】：河南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F224

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