上市公司银行股与创业板股票业绩与股价趋势背离的实证研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 20:25

【摘要】：本文以2011年至2013年的中国股票市场为基础，试图通过PEG价值投资模型、DDM模型与FCFF模型对股票样本估值与价格的背离进行研究，并分析产生背离的原因。选择的样本包括银行业股票、医药行业股票与创业板股票。其中,银行股票在这3年中净利润复合增长率保持25%左右，但是股价走势却与高增长的业绩相背离。相对而言，业绩相似的医药股票走势却远强于银行股。相对于银行股，，市盈率较高的创业板股票价格却屡创新高，从而与传统的价值投资模型产生一定的背离。此外，本文还对PEG法的应用提出了新的假设，并分析了这些投资方法对中小投资者的意义与利用价值。本文的主要结论：（1）银行股样本股价与实际价值存在一定背离，主要原因是由于其盈利能力的下降和机构对其未来盈利能力下滑的预期造成的；（2）创业板样本其市盈率水平相比于其他板块较高,但由于其盈利能力强，其价格走势与估值可以通过PEG估值法与FCFF模型进行合理解释。
[Abstract]:Based on the Chinese stock market from 2011 to 2013, this paper attempts to study the deviation between stock sample valuation and price by using PEG value investment model and FCFF model, and analyzes the reasons for the deviation. The selected samples include banking stocks, pharmaceutical stocks and gem stocks. Among them, bank stocks maintained a compound net profit growth rate of about 25 percent over the past three years, but the stock price trend deviated from the high growth results. Comparatively speaking, the performance similar medicine stock trend actually is much stronger than the bank stock. Compared with the bank stocks, the high price-earnings ratio of gem stock prices have repeatedly reached new highs, which has a certain deviation from the traditional value investment model. In addition, this paper also puts forward new assumptions about the application of PEG method, and analyzes the significance and utilization value of these investment methods for small and medium-sized investors. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) there is a certain deviation between the sample stock price and the actual value of the bank stock, which is mainly due to the decline of its profitability and the expectation of its future profitability; (2) the price-earnings ratio of gem sample is higher than that of other plates, but its price trend and valuation can be reasonably explained by PEG valuation method and FCFF model because of its strong profitability.
【学位授予单位】：对外经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

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