效用视角下地方政府债务风险研究

发布时间：2018-11-25 20:19

【摘要】：2015年大量地方政府债务到期,为了抑制地方政府债务风险,中央政府允许发行地方债券,但地方债券发行多有不顺,地方债券能否化解地方政府债务风险具有较大的不确定性,有人认为地方债券很可能进一步加深债务风险,可见目前我国地方政府债务问题依然不容乐观。因此,本文从地方政府效用视角出发,探析地方政府债务风险的成因,提出地方政府债务风险的管控方案以及实施方案的对策建议。首先,通过回顾地方政府债务的相关研究文献,发现以往研究不足,确定本文的研究重点,界定相关定义概念,阐述相关的核心理论,为后续研究提供理论指导。其次,本文构建了地方政府效用函数,通过对效用函数的分析,探索地方政府债务风险的成因。研究显示,地方政府效用是地方政府债务的增函数,地方政府追求自身效用最大化是形成地方政府债务风险的根本原因,而地方政府间的竞争加剧了地方政府债务风险的积聚。再次,提出了地方政府债务风险的管控方案,通过构建并分析管控方案下地方政府效用函数,论证了管控方案的有效性,并分析出地方政府债务风险管控方案的影响因素。通过地方政府博弈均衡得知,在管控方案下竞争对遏制地方政府债务风险具有积极效应。最后,提出地方政府债务风险管控方案的实施建议。本文认为中央政府通过合理建设债务风险的监察机制,地方政府加强债务风险管理,能够将地方政府债务风险保持在可控水平范围内。
[Abstract]:In 2015, a large amount of local government debt matured. In order to curb the risk of local government debt, the central government allowed the issuance of local bonds, but the issuance of local bonds was not good enough. There is greater uncertainty as to whether local bonds can resolve the risk of local government debt. Some people think that local bonds are likely to further deepen the debt risk, it is clear that the current debt problems of local governments in China are still not optimistic. Therefore, from the perspective of local government utility, this paper probes into the causes of local government debt risk, and puts forward the control scheme of local government debt risk and the countermeasures and suggestions for its implementation. First of all, by reviewing the relevant research literature of local government debt, we find that the previous research is insufficient, determine the focus of this study, define the concept of relevant definitions, explain the relevant core theory, and provide theoretical guidance for the follow-up research. Secondly, this paper constructs the utility function of local government, and explores the causes of local government debt risk through the analysis of utility function. The research shows that the utility of local government is the increasing function of local government debt, and the local government pursuing its own utility maximization is the fundamental reason to form the local government debt risk, and the competition among local governments intensifies the accumulation of local government debt risk. Thirdly, the paper puts forward the management and control scheme of local government debt risk. By constructing and analyzing the utility function of local government under the control scheme, the effectiveness of the control scheme is proved, and the influencing factors of the local government debt risk control scheme are analyzed. Through the game equilibrium of local government, it is known that competition under the control scheme has a positive effect on the containment of local government debt risk. Finally, put forward the local government debt risk control program implementation recommendations. This paper holds that the central government can keep the debt risk of local government within the range of controllable level by constructing the supervision mechanism of debt risk reasonably and strengthening the management of debt risk by local government.
【学位授予单位】：燕山大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F812.5

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