政府投资效率与债务风险关系探究

发布时间：2019-03-16 10:06

【摘要】：本文首先通过构建一个DSGE模型,从理论角度对政府投资与债务风险的关系进行了研究。在引入政府投资冲击后,我们观察到了政府投资效率与债务风险之间存在较为明显的反向作用关系。为了实证该理论模型结果,我们分别通过DEA模型和KMV模型测算了2009-2014年各省级地方政府的债务投资效率与债务风险,而后通过系统广义矩估计对该面板数据进行了实证研究。实证结果显示,地方政府债务投资效率与其债务风险存在较为明显的负相关关系,且投资效率每上升1个单位,地方政府债务违约风险的下降幅度在0.19到0.33之间。理论模型的模拟结果得到了实证结果的有力支撑。最后,我们根据研究结论,提出了相关建议。
[Abstract]:Firstly, by constructing a DSGE model, this paper studies the relationship between government investment and debt risk from a theoretical point of view. After introducing the impact of government investment, we have observed that there is an obvious reverse relationship between the efficiency of government investment and debt risk. In order to demonstrate the results of the theoretical model, we calculate the debt investment efficiency and debt risk of the provincial local governments from 2009 to 2014 by DEA model and KMV model, and then make an empirical study on the panel data by the generalized moment estimation of the system. The empirical results show that there is a significant negative correlation between the investment efficiency of local government debt and its debt risk, and the decline of local government debt default risk is between 0.19 and 0.33 for every unit increase of investment efficiency. The simulation results of the theoretical model are strongly supported by the empirical results. Finally, according to the conclusion of the study, we put forward some suggestions.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学财政税务学院;天津财经大学经济学院;
【基金】：中央财经大学博士重点选题支持计划项目《财政新常态下地方政府财政可持续与债务风险研究》(项目号2016-PYXT03)和中央财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目《中国地方政府信用评级研究》
【分类号】：F812.5

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