现代西方经济学中预期理论的发展

发布时间：2017-12-31 00:20

本文关键词：现代西方经济学中预期理论的发展　出处：《河北经贸大学》2011年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：预期在现实经济生活中的运用到处可见,人们运用预期的范围越来越广泛,运用的深度也在不断拓展。在经济学领域中,预期占有地位的也显得愈发的重要,现代西方经济学中的各学派都包含了预期理论,并运用预期理论来解释和解决存在的经济问题。本文分成七部分对现代西方经济学中的预期理论进行阐述,第一部分绪论简要概括了本文写作的背景、目的、研究现状和创新点。第二部分主要是瑞典学派的预期理论,瑞典学派预期理论的代表性人物是维克赛尔和缪尔达尔,他们的代表理论则是累积过程论和事前事后的分析方法。瑞典学派的预期理论还在一定程度上影响了凯恩斯和货币学派关于预期的理论。第三部分是马歇尔的预期思想,马歇尔的预期思想涵盖在他的需求理论、供给理论和均衡价格理论中,马歇尔主要是从心理因素方面来阐述预期理论。第四部分是凯恩斯的预期理论,凯恩斯主要是从有效需求和三大心理规律来阐述预期理论,凯恩斯的预期理论也是心理预期理论,这与马歇尔的预期理论相同,但他们的政策主张却是截然相反的。第五部分是货币学派的预期理论,代表人物是弗里德曼,从永久性收入、货币需求理论和附加预期的菲利普斯曲线来阐述适应性预期理论,这比凯恩斯的外推行预期理论向前走了一步。第六部分是理性预期学派的预期思想,阐述了理性预期学派的基本假说与理性预期的应用,理性预期学派是吸收货币主义学派的思想而形成的,但他比货币学派坚持更彻底的经济自由主义,认为人们可以形成精确的预期,即达到避免利益损失的目的。第七部分是新凯恩斯主义的预期理论,主要从长期价格合同论、交错调整价格论、交错调整工资论和长期劳动合同论来论述预期理论,新凯恩斯主义从理性预期学派借来了理性预期的概念而发展成了理性限制性预期,与理性预期学派的理性预期相比,更与实际相符合,是预期理论的又一进步。文章只论述了现代西方经济学中的预期理论,但这并不意味着预期理论的发展就此停滞不前了。理论将随着实际经济生活的不断变化发展而随之变化发展,预期理论的发展亦是如此。随着经济的快速发展,预期理论也将朝着更新的、与实际更相符合的阶段发展。
[Abstract]:The application of expectation in real economic life can be seen everywhere. The scope of people's application of expectation is more and more extensive, and the depth of application is also expanding. In the field of economics, it is more and more important to expect to occupy a position. Every school in modern western economics contains the theory of expectation and uses it to explain and solve the existing economic problems. This paper is divided into seven parts to elaborate the theory of expectation in modern western economics. The first part is a brief summary of the background and purpose of this paper. The second part is the expectation theory of the Swedish school. The representative figures of the expectation theory of the Swedish school are Wessel and Murdal. Their representative theory is cumulative process theory and ex post analysis method. The expectation theory of Swedish school also influences the theory of expectation of Keynesian and monetary school to some extent. The third part is Marshall's foreword. Period thought. Marshall's expectation theory is covered in his demand theory, supply theory and equilibrium price theory. Marshall mainly expounds expectation theory from psychological aspect. 4th part is Keynes's expectation theory. Keynes mainly from effective demand and three psychological laws to explain the expected theory, Keynes expected theory is also psychological expectation theory, which is the same as Marshall's expectation theory. But their policy proposition is quite the opposite. 5th is part of the monetary school's theory of expectations, represented by Friedman, from permanent income. The theory of monetary demand and the Phillips curve with expectations are used to explain the theory of adaptive expectation, which is a step forward from Keynes' theory of external expectation. 6th is the expectation thought of the school of rational expectation. This paper expounds the basic hypothesis of the school of rational expectation and the application of the school of rational expectation. The school of rational expectation is formed by absorbing the thought of monetarist school, but it adheres to more thorough economic liberalism than the school of money. The 7th part is a new Keynesian expectation theory, mainly from the long-term price contract theory, staggered adjustment price theory. Staggered adjustment of wage theory and long-term labor contract theory to discuss the theory of expectations, the new Keynesianism borrowed from the school of rational expectations of the concept of rational expectations and developed into rational restrictive expectations. Compared with rational expectation of rational expectation school, it is more consistent with reality and is another progress of expectation theory. This paper only discusses the theory of expectation in modern western economics, but this does not mean that the development of the theory of expectation has stagnated. The theory will change and develop with the development of real economic life. With the rapid development of the economy, the expected theory will also move towards a new stage, more in line with the actual situation.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F091.3

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