居民消费需求不足与宏观经济政策效应的理论与实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-08 07:24

本文关键词：居民消费需求不足与宏观经济政策效应的理论与实证研究　出处：《厦门大学》2007年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】： 消费需求作为拉动经济增长的“三驾马车”之一,是经济增长中份额最大、最稳定的需求。然而20世纪90年代以来,我国经济发展过程中出现了居民消费需求不足的问题,一定程度上制约了国民经济的持续、快速、健康发展。因此深入研究转型时期我国居民消费需求的特征,认真分析居民消费需求不足的影响因素并提出相应对策,不仅对丰富我国消费理论研究具有重要的理论价值,而且对于提高宏观经济政策效应具有十分重大的现实意义。本文首先评述了西方消费理论的研究成果,尤其对消费理论研究的最新进展进行细致地总结,为全文作好理论铺垫。第二章对我国居民消费需求不足进行了估算,分别从消费率、消费倾向的横向、纵向比较两个方面指出我国居民消费需求长期偏低的现状,说明研究居民消费问题的必要性和紧迫性。第三章深入研究了转轨时期我国居民的消费需求,以揭示居民消费需求不足的形成机制:先从微观角度考察了消费者的消费决策,通过构建一个包含不确定性和流动性约束在内的数理模型,得出结论为:不确定性和流动性约束会对我国居民消费产生显著影响,为消费函数研究奠定微观基础;再从宏观角度对我国居民的消费函数进行了实证检验,得出结论为:收入、不确定性、流动性约束以及收入差距这四个因素均在一定程度上影响了我国居民的消费。第四章对居民消费需求不足和宏观经济政策效应的关系进行了考察,指出中国当前的宏观经济政策取向应更加侧重通过消费拉动经济增长,实现消费和投资之间的合理比例。第五章在第三章的基础上,深入分析了制约我国居民消费需求的主要因素,并提出扩大我国居民消费需求的政策建议,主要通过制定居民收入增长政策、完善社会保障体系、发展消费信贷以及缩小收入差距等方面来刺激居民的消费需求拉动经济增长。
[Abstract]:Consumer demand to promote economic growth as one of "three carriages", is the largest share of economic growth, the most stable demand. However, since 1990s, the lack of consumer demand in China's economic development, to a certain extent restricts the national economy sustained, rapid and healthy development. Therefore, in-depth study the transition period characteristics of China's consumer demand, a careful analysis of the reasons of inadequate consumer demand and put forward the corresponding countermeasures, not only has important theoretical value to enrich the study of China's consumption theory and practical significance to improve the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies is very important.
This paper first reviews the research achievements of western consumption theory, especially the latest development of consumption theory research makes a detailed summary, as theoretical basis. The second chapter is the estimate of the insufficient consumption demand of Chinese residents, respectively, from the consumption rate, lateral consumption, longitudinal comparison of the two aspects of present consumption demand residents of long-term low, indicating the necessity and urgency of consumer issues. The third chapter analyzes China's consumer demand during the transition period, in order to reveal the formation mechanism of insufficient consumer demand: first from the micro perspective of consumer decisions, by constructing a mathematical model which contains uncertainty and flow constraint, the conclusion is: the uncertainty and liquidity constraints will have a significant impact on household consumption in China, for the study of consumption function lay micro foundation; Again on Chinese consumption function from the perspective of empirical analysis, the conclusion is: the income uncertainty, all the four factors of liquidity constraints and income gap affect the consumption of our residents to a certain extent. The fourth chapter is about the relationship between consumer demand and the effect of macroeconomic policy of study pointed out that China current macroeconomic policy orientation should be more dependent on consumer driven economic growth, to achieve a reasonable proportion between consumption and investment. In the fifth chapter, the third chapter on the basis of in-depth analysis of the main factors restricting the consumption demand of our country, and put forward the expansion of China's consumer demand policy recommendations, mainly through the development of residents' income growth policies, improve the social security system, the development of consumer credit and narrowing the income gap to stimulate consumer demand and stimulate economic growth.

【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2007
【分类号】：F014.5;F123

【引证文献】