安徽省城市化进程中的碳排放影响因素研究——基于STIRPAT模型

发布时间：2018-01-13 23:34

本文关键词：安徽省城市化进程中的碳排放影响因素研究——基于STIRPAT模型　出处：《长江流域资源与环境》2014年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：通过对安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量及碳排放强度进行了测算分析,并基于STIRPAT模型,运用因子主成分回归方法,构建影响城市化进程中碳排放增长的驱动因子模型,对城市化进程中碳排放影响因子进行定量分析研究。研究表明:安徽省2000~2011年能源消费碳排放量呈逐年递增态势,碳排放强度和能源强度均逐年递减态势;安徽省在城市化快速进程中,第二产业产值、第三产业产值、城镇人口比重、城镇建成区面积、城镇居民人均可支配收入每增加1%时,碳排放总量将增加1.208 8%、0.202 0%、0.502 3%、4.793 8%、1.066 0%;当能源强度每下降1%时,碳排放总量将减少0.120 2%;城镇建成区面积扩张、工业化水平提升促进了能源的消耗,成为碳排放的主要驱动因素。鉴于此,提出严格控制城市发展用地规模、通过科技创新推动能源利用效率提高及开发利用新能源、优化产业结构及提高三次产业占GDP比重、建设紧凑型低碳城市、倡导低碳绿色生态的生产消费模式等政策建议,为实现建设生态文明以及实现"生态安徽"与"美丽安徽"目标提供科学依据,也可为中尺度(省级行政区)城市化进程中碳排放的研究提供示范。
[Abstract]:The carbon emissions and intensity of energy consumption from 2000 to 2011 in Anhui Province were calculated and analyzed. Based on STIRPAT model, the principal component regression method was used. The driving factor model of carbon emission growth in the process of urbanization is constructed. The quantitative analysis of the factors affecting carbon emissions in the process of urbanization shows that the carbon emissions from energy consumption in Anhui Province are increasing year by year from 2000 to 2011. Carbon emission intensity and energy intensity are decreasing year by year. In the rapid process of urbanization in Anhui Province, the output value of the secondary industry, the output value of the tertiary industry, the proportion of urban population, the area of urban built-up areas, and the per capita disposable income of urban residents increase by 1 hour. The total amount of carbon emissions will be increased by 1.208 8% and 0.202 0, including 0.502 3% and 4.7938%. When the energy intensity decreases by 1, the total amount of carbon emissions will be reduced by 0.1202. The expansion of urban area and the promotion of industrialization promote the consumption of energy and become the main driving factor of carbon emission. In view of this, it is proposed to strictly control the scale of urban development land. Through scientific and technological innovation to promote the efficiency of energy use and development and utilization of new energy, optimize the industrial structure and increase the proportion of tertiary industries in GDP, and build a compact low-carbon city. To advocate the production and consumption pattern of low carbon green ecology and to provide scientific basis for realizing the construction of ecological civilization and realizing the goals of "ecological Anhui" and "beautiful Anhui". It can also provide a model for the study of carbon emission in the process of urbanization in mesoscale (provincial administrative district).
【作者单位】：中国矿业大学环测学院;池州学院政法管理系;池州学院资源环境与旅游系;
【基金】：江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(SZBF2011-6-B35) 安徽省教育厅重点研究课题(2010sk502zd) 安徽省高校省级优秀青年人才基金重点项目(2013SQRW085ZD) 池州学院自然重点项目(2013ZRZ007)
【分类号】：X196
【正文快照】： 碳排放主要集中在人口、工业、建筑、交通等相对集中的城市地区,大量的能源消费和碳排放源于城镇,且城市化进程影响经济增长、产业结构和居民消费,进而影响到能源消费和碳排放[1]。如何理解城市化与能源消费和碳排放的关系,关系到我国城市化、能源安全和环境保护协调发展,分析

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