贸易伙伴分布对出口国经济增长的影响——基于跨国面板数据的分位数回归

发布时间：2018-01-23 17:49

本文关键词： 出口贸易贸易伙伴出口集中度经济增长分位数回归　出处：《技术经济》2012年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从出口贸易伙伴数、出口集中度和贸易伙伴国国别结构等角度,讨论了贸易伙伴分布影响出口国经济增长的机制。采用1994—2009年53个国家的面板数据进行实证分析,结果表明:非OECD国家贸易伙伴数对出口国经济增长的影响为负且不显著,而OECD国家贸易伙伴数则显著促进了出口国的经济增长;出口集中度的影响效应呈U型变化;贸易伙伴国的经济增长有利于出口国的经济增长。分位数回归结果表明,随着经济增长从条件分布的低分位向高分位变化,贸易伙伴数的促进作用逐渐减弱,出口集中度的U型效应仅对处于条件分布高端的国家成立,贸易伙伴国的经济增长对于处于低分位点国家的经济增长的正向效应最为明显。
[Abstract]:From the export trading partners, export concentration and trading partner country structure, and so on. This paper discusses the mechanism of trade partner distribution influencing the economic growth of exporting countries. The empirical analysis is carried out using panel data from 53 countries from 1994 to 2009. The results show that the number of trade partners of non-#en0# countries has a negative and insignificant impact on the economic growth of exporting countries, while the number of trade partners of OECD countries significantly promotes the economic growth of exporting countries. The effect of export concentration is U-shaped. The economic growth of the trading partner countries is favorable to the economic growth of the exporting countries. The quantile regression results show that with the change of the economic growth from the low quantile of conditional distribution to the high quantile, the promoting role of the number of trading partners gradually weakens. The U-shaped effect of export concentration is only established in countries with high conditional distribution, and the positive effect of economic growth of trading partner countries on the economic growth of countries with low fractions is most obvious.
【作者单位】：湖南大学经济与贸易学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“我国工业行业的出口广延边际与技术进步的理论及实证研究”(11CJL041) 教育部“新世纪优秀人才支持计划”项目(NCET-10-0373) 湖南大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(10YJA790274)资助
【分类号】：F740;F061.2;F224
【正文快照】： 1研究背景许多研究聚焦出口贸易额或者贸易开放度,从理论或者实证的角度对出口贸易影响经济增长的作用进行了论证。但正如Rodrik[1]、Hausmann[2]等所阐述的,真正影响一国长期经济增长的可能不是出口“多少”,而是出口“什么”,即出口结构。他们的实证研究表明,那些出口更复

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