预期、有偏性预期及其形成机制:宏观经济学的进展与争议

发布时间：2018-02-22 12:34

本文关键词： 宏观经济学预期信息机制冲击　出处：《经济研究》2015年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：预期在宏观经济学及其发展中具有根本性的作用,但在预期是否有偏的问题上仍然存在着争议,预期的形成机制更是国际经济学界的难题。历史回顾发现,预期设定的变化与宏观经济学的发展紧密关联。从经验证据看,对多种数据、多种变量、多种主体等的研究发现,预期通常是有偏的,通常假设的无偏性预期或理性预期难以成立。而难点在于预期形成机制,目前主要从信息处理能力和适应性学习的角度刻画预期形成过程。在不同预期模型和信息处理能力设定下,宏观经济的波动解释和最优政策设计都有所不同,一旦引入有偏性预期,宏观经济学及宏观政策都将做相应的调整。整体上看,有偏性预期及其形成机制的研究仍然是个重大的挑战和前沿研究领域。
[Abstract]:Expectations play a fundamental role in macroeconomics and its development, but there are still disputes on whether expectations are biased, and the formation mechanism of expectations is a difficult problem in international economic circles. The changes in expectations are closely related to the development of macroeconomics. From empirical evidence, studies of multiple data, variables, agents and so on have found that expectations are usually biased. Usually the assumption of unbiased expectations or rational expectations is difficult to establish. The difficulty lies in the formation mechanism of expectations. At present, the process of expected formation is mainly described from the perspective of information processing ability and adaptive learning. Under different expected models and information processing ability, the macroeconomic fluctuation interpretation and optimal policy design are different. Once biased expectations are introduced, both macroeconomics and macroeconomic policies will be adjusted accordingly. On the whole, the study of biased expectation and its formation mechanism is still a major challenge and frontier research field.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院财经战略研究院;华中科技大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目(13AZD073) 中国社科院创新工程项目等的资助
【分类号】：F015

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