隐性经济产业关联的生产率效应

发布时间：2018-03-25 08:58

本文选题：隐性经济　切入点：正规经济　出处：《中国工业经济》2013年11期

【摘要】：本文使用货币需求法和结构模型——多指标多因素法(MIMIC)测度了中国行业层面隐性经济规模的大小,实证分析表明,生产税收负担和自我雇佣率导致隐性经济规模增加,而政府管制和收入分配差距则会降低隐性经济规模(增加值部门),同时增加值和中间投入部门存在一定规模的隐性经济,而进出口部门不存在隐性经济。在此基础上,分析了中国工业行业隐性经济的水平、垂直(前向和后向)关联效应对正规经济劳动生产率的影响,分析发现隐性经济无论在水平效应还是上下游产业的垂直关联效应方面,对正规经济的劳动生产率都有负面影响,并且隐性经济前向关联的负面效应大于隐性经济后向关联的负面效应。因此,有必要通过减少生产税收负担和自我雇佣人群数量,来降低隐性经济生产活动规模,并减少隐性经济对正规经济生产的中间投入购买量以及隐性经济提供给正规经济中间产品的数量。
[Abstract]:This paper use the method of currency demand and structure model, multi index and multi factor method (MIMIC) to measure the Chinese industry level implicit economy scale, the empirical analysis shows that the production tax and self employment rates lead to hidden economies of scale increase, and the government regulation and the income distribution gap will reduce the hidden economy scale (value added sector) at the same time, recessive economic value added and the middle there is a certain scale investment sector, and import and export department does not exist hidden economy. On this basis, analysis of the China industry hidden economy level, vertical (forward and backward) effects of correlation of normal economic productivity, both in economic analysis found that the implicit level effect or on the downstream industry vertical correlation effect, have a negative impact on the normal economic productivity, and implicit economy forward association is greater than the negative effect To the negative effect of recessive economic relevance. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the tax burden on production and self employment population, to reduce the implicit economic production scale, and reduce the intermediate hidden economy of formal economic production investment purchases and provide the number of hidden economy formal economy intermediate products.

【作者单位】：中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行;
【分类号】：F062.9

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