基于逻辑生长曲线的我国水泥行业能源消费与碳排放情景分析

发布时间：2018-03-27 20:34

本文选题：水泥行业　切入点：能源消费　出处：《大连理工大学》2011年硕士论文

【摘要】：水泥行业是一个高能耗和高排放的行业。水泥行业的CO2排放不仅来自燃料的燃烧,还来自于碳酸盐材料的分解。研究我国水泥行业的能耗与CO2排放特点,准确地预测未来我国水泥产品的需求量,准确地预测未来我国水泥行业的能源需求和CO2排放量,对促进我国的节能减排工作,实现低碳经济发展都有着重要的意义。本文基于1978-2008年水泥消费量的统计数据,运用逻辑生长曲线数学模型,依据台湾模式、日本模式、欧美模式设定我国水泥需求为高位、中位、低位三种情景,预测出我国达到饱和点以前的水泥需求量。根据情景设定的回落稳定水平去推算达到饱和点以后的水泥需求量,从而得到2010-2030年我国水泥需求量的三种情景预测结果。设定能源效率情景(单位产品能耗)为基准情景和低碳情景。综合水泥需求三种情景和能源效率两种情景,推算出了2010-2030年我国水泥行业能源消费量和CO2排放量的六种情景结果。在高中低三种情景下,我国水泥需求分别在2021、2019、2016年达到饱和,对应的当年水泥需求量分别为16.88、15.18和13.89亿吨。2010-2030年我国水泥行业的能源消费量与CO2排放量的变化趋势类似于水泥需求量的变化趋势。高位需求基准情景是能源消费量和CO2排放量最多的一种情景,低位需求低碳情景是最少的一种情景。同一种需求情景下,低碳情景比基准情景更加节能减排。
[Abstract]:The cement industry is an industry with high energy consumption and high discharge . The CO2 emission from cement industry is not only from the combustion of fuel but also from the decomposition of carbonate material . The energy consumption and CO2 emission characteristics of cement industry in China are studied . The energy demand and CO2 emission of cement industry in the future are predicted accurately . It is of great significance to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in our country and realize low - carbon economic development .

Based on the statistic data of cement consumption in 1978 - 2008 , based on the mathematical model of the logic growth curve , according to the model of Taiwan , the Japanese mode , the European and American models , the cement demand of China is set to be high , medium and low .

The demand of cement in China is 16.88 , 15.18 and 13.89 million tons in 2021 , 2019 and 2016 respectively . In 2010 - 2030 , the trend of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China is similar to the trend of cement demand . The high demand benchmark scenario is a scenario with the lowest energy consumption and CO2 emissions , and the low demand low - carbon scenario is the least one scenario . In the same kind of demand scenario , the low - carbon scenario is more energy - saving and emission - reducing than the baseline scenario .

【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2011
【分类号】：F426.71;X196

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