生态赤字影响因素的定量分析及其动态预测研究——以江苏省为例

发布时间：2018-04-08 19:37

本文选题：生态赤字　切入点：动态预测　出处：《水土保持通报》2012年06期

【摘要】：以江苏省为例,选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立社会经济系统指标体系,在对江苏省1985-2009年生态赤字时间序列计算分析的基础上,综合运用STIRPAT模型、变量投影重要性指数(VIP)和偏最小二乘(PLS)方法构建了江苏省生态赤字动态预测模型,对江苏省"十二五"规划期间生态赤字的发展情况进行了动态预测。结果表明,"十二五"规划期间,江苏省总生态赤字将从2009年的1.156 1×108 hm2上升至2015年的1.418 4×108 hm2,呈整体上升趋势,人均生态赤字从2009年的1.496 7hm2上升至2015年的1.768 8hm2,高于全球平均水平(0.400 0hm2),且江苏省不存在生态赤字EKC曲线的有关假说;根据VIP值得出"十二五"规划期间江苏省生态赤字持续增加的重要驱动因素,且按其影响的重要性排序依次为:二三产业产值占总产值比重农作物总播种面积人均GDP普通高等学校师生比卫生机构床位数货运周转量总人口数。最后就如何实现江苏省"十二五"规划目标提出相关政策建议。
[Abstract]:Taking Jiangsu Province as an example, this paper selects the important indicators to represent the development of social economy and establishes the index system of social economic system. On the basis of calculating and analyzing the time series of ecological deficit in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2009, the STIRPAT model is used synthetically.The variable projection importance index (VIP) and the partial least squares (PLS) method are used to construct the dynamic forecasting model of ecological deficit in Jiangsu Province, and the development of ecological deficit during the 12th Five-Year Plan of Jiangsu Province is dynamically forecasted.The results show that the total ecological deficit of Jiangsu Province will increase from 1.156 脳 10 ~ 8 hm2 in 2009 to 1.418 4 脳 10 ~ 8 hm ~ 2 in 2015 during the 12th Five-Year Plan period.The per capita ecological deficit increased from 1.496 7hm2 in 2009 to 1.768 8 hm ~ 2 in 2015, which is higher than the global average of 0.400 hm ~ 2, and there is no hypothesis of EKC curve of ecological deficit in Jiangsu Province.According to the fact that VIP is worthy of the important drivers of the sustained increase in the ecological deficit in Jiangsu Province during the 12th Five-Year Plan period,The order of importance of its influence is as follows: the output value of secondary and tertiary industries accounts for the proportion of the gross output value of crops to the total planting area of crops GDP per capita GDP ratio of teachers and students of general institutions of higher learning the number of beds in health institutions freight turnover of the total population.Finally, it puts forward some relevant policy suggestions on how to realize the 12 th five-year plan goal of Jiangsu Province.
【作者单位】：江苏大学环境学院;南京大学地理与海洋科学学院;
【基金】：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目“土地利用规划的碳排放效应与调控研究”(200811033) 江苏省环保科技基金项目(2009037) 江苏大学高级专业人才科研启动基金项目(08JDG042) 江苏大学学生科研立项(08A169)
【分类号】：X196

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