中国国际贸易隐含碳SDA分析

发布时间：2018-04-27 22:21

本文选题：国际贸易 + 投入产出分析　；参考：《资源科学》2012年12期

【摘要】：本文基于简化的非竞争型可比性价值投入产出表,应用投入产出分析法测算了2002年-2007年中国贸易隐含碳排放情况,发现中国的进出口和净出口隐含碳呈上升状态。其中,2007年净出口隐含碳(1928.93Mt)是2002年(615.12Mt)的3倍多。出口隐含碳的增加是导致中国净出口隐含碳增加的主要原因。为了进一步分析中国出口隐含碳增加的原因,本文应用结构分解分析法(SDA)将我国的出口碳排放分解为碳排放强度、中间投入结构、出口结构、出口总量四个方面。结果显示:2002年-2007年除了CO2碳排放强度效应为负值外(-20.00%),其余三种因素的效应均为正值,出口总量是导致隐含碳排放量增加的最大驱动因素(106.58%),其次是中间投入结构(10.80%),出口结构的影响很小(2.62%)。对第二产业的SDA分析结果显示:中国出口隐含碳大部分来自于重工业,其次是高科技工业、轻工业和其他制造业。对轻工业和其他制造业而言,出口结构对隐含碳排放量有抑制作用;对高科技工业而言,中间产品的投入结构对隐含碳排放量有抑制作用。
[Abstract]:Based on the simplified non-competitive input-output table of comparable value, this paper uses the input-output analysis method to estimate the implied carbon emissions of China's trade from 2002 to 2007. It is found that China's import and export and net export implied carbon is on the rise. Among them, net export implied carbon (1928.93 Mt) in 2007 was more than three times higher than that in 2002 (615.12 Mt). The increase of export implied carbon is the main reason for the increase of China's net export implied carbon. In order to further analyze the reasons for the increase of China's export implied carbon, this paper uses the structural decomposition analysis method (SDA) to decompose China's export carbon emissions into four aspects: carbon emission intensity, intermediate input structure, export structure and total export volume. The results show that except for the negative value of carbon emission intensity of CO2 from 2002 to 2007, the effects of the other three factors are all positive. The total export volume is the biggest driving factor leading to the increase of implied carbon emissions, followed by the intermediate input structure 10.80, and the export structure has a small effect on 2.62%. SDA analysis of the secondary industry showed that China's export implied carbon came mostly from heavy industry, followed by high-tech industry, light industry and other manufacturing industries. For light industry and other manufacturing industries, the export structure can restrain the implied carbon emissions, while for the high-tech industry, the input structure of intermediate products can inhibit the implied carbon emissions.
【作者单位】：天津大学环境科学与工程学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学基金:“中国贸易隐含碳转移变化与国际产业分工”(编号:11YJCZH177) 国家自然科学基金:“基于全球生产网络的中国对外贸易中CO2转移排放研究”(编号:41201591) 国家社科项目:“全碳效率测度与区域生态经济评价研究”(编号:12BJY025)
【分类号】：X196;F752.6;F224

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