中国工业碳排放影响因素与CKC重组效应——基于STIRPAT模型的分行业动态面板数据实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 08:28

本文选题：二氧化碳排放 + STIRPAT模型　；参考：《中国工业经济》2012年01期

【摘要】：新世纪以来中国工业转型特征明显,行业CO2排放强度呈波动下降走势,但2003年工业再度重型化和2008年金融危机导致排放强度明显上升。基于改进的STIRPAT模型,本文利用动态面板数据实证研究了工业碳排放的影响因素,并详细考察了中国工业CO2库兹涅茨曲线(CKC)的类型及成因。主要结论是:中国工业CKC呈"N型"走势,而非传统的"倒U型",即CO2排放与经济增长在倒U型走势之后又形成拐点,出现"重组"现象;投资规模与排放显著正相关,研发强度不是影响排放的主要因素,CO2排放是个动态调整过程,存在明显的滞后效应;政府节能减排政策有助于降低排放,减排治理政策应从产业结构、技术进步、宏观经济环境以及环境规制等多方面综合考虑。
[Abstract]:Since the beginning of the new century, the characteristics of China's industrial transformation are obvious, the CO2 emission intensity of the industry is fluctuating and decreasing trend, but the heavy industry again in 2003 and the financial crisis of 2008 led to the obvious increase of the emission intensity. Based on the improved STIRPAT model, this paper empirically studies the influencing factors of industrial carbon emissions by using dynamic panel data, and investigates in detail the types and causes of the industrial CO2 Kuznets curve in China. The main conclusions are as follows: the trend of industrial CKC in China is "N-type", but not the traditional "inverted U-type", that is, the inflection point between CO2 emission and economic growth is formed after the inverted U-shaped trend, and the phenomenon of "reorganization" occurs, and the scale of investment is significantly positively correlated with emissions. R & D intensity is not the main factor affecting emissions. CO2 emission is a dynamic adjustment process, and there is obvious lag effect. Government energy saving and emission reduction policies help to reduce emissions, and emission reduction management policies should be based on industrial structure and technological progress. Macroeconomic environment and environmental regulation and other aspects of comprehensive consideration.
【作者单位】：暨南大学产业经济研究院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重大攻关项目“应对国际资源环境变化挑战与加快我国经济发展方式转变研究”(批准号09&ZD021)
【分类号】：X196;F424

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