EU-ETS是否导致欧盟碳密集型行业发生碳泄漏

发布时间：2018-05-16 17:34

本文选题：碳泄漏 + 碳密集型行业　；参考：《中国人口.资源与环境》2014年01期

【摘要】：减少碳泄漏是欧盟提出开征边境调节税的理由之一,但关于欧盟碳密集型行业是否发生显著碳泄漏的实证研究则相对较少。本文从双边贸易的视角,对欧盟水泥、铝、钢铁三个碳密集型产业的进出口贸易进行了结构断点检验,发现水泥和铝进出口不存在显著的结构性变化,而钢铁进出口在2003年和2008年存在两个结构断点,在第二个断点处钢铁进口整体增加;本文进一步检验了欧洲气候交易所碳价格与钢铁进出口的格兰杰因果关系,发现钢铁进口的变化由碳价格导致,而出口变化则不是。研究结果表明,EUETS的实施对欧盟碳密集型产业影响的范围和程度有限,水泥、铝和钢铁产业中,只在钢铁进口中发现了部分碳泄漏的证据。因此,减少碳泄漏不足以成为欧盟开征边境调节税的充足理由。
[Abstract]:Reducing carbon leakage is one of the reasons why the EU proposes to levy a border regulation tax, but there are relatively few empirical studies on whether significant carbon leakage occurs in carbon-intensive industries in the EU. From the perspective of bilateral trade, this paper makes a structural breakpoint test on the import and export trade of cement, aluminum and steel in the three carbon-intensive industries of EU, and finds that there is no significant structural change in the import and export of cement and aluminum. There are two structural breakpoints in the import and export of iron and steel in 2003 and 2008, and at the second breakpoint, the import of iron and steel increases as a whole. This paper further examines the Granger causality between the carbon price of the European Climate Exchange and the import and export of iron and steel. Changes in steel imports were found to be caused by carbon prices, while changes in exports were not. The results show that the implementation of EUETS has a limited impact on carbon intensive industries in the EU. In cement, aluminum and steel industries, only partial carbon leakage has been found in steel imports. So reducing carbon spills is not enough to justify the EU's border regulation tax.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学经济管理学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“减少砍伐和退化造成的排放机制(REDD+)影响毁林行为的传导路径及权利平等性研究”(编号:71303123) 教育部人文社科基金青年项目“全球森林减排背景下中国REDD+影响毁林行为减缓的传导路径及政策评估方法研究”(编号:13YJCZH148);教育部人文社科基金青年项目“居民家庭节能投资中‘市场失灵’的形成机理与应对政策研究”(编号:13YJC790225)
【分类号】：X196

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