碳税对于发展非化石能源的作用——基于能源-环境-经济模型的分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 09:46

本文选题：碳税 + 中国能源-环境-经济模型　；参考：《自然资源学报》2012年07期

【摘要】：为评价实现我国2020年碳排放强度和非化石能源发展目标的经济和环境影响,论文应用基于动态CGE模型的中国能源-环境-经济模型,模拟了不同减排政策下的减排效果及经济影响。模拟结果显示,征收40元/t CO2碳税,将碳税作为政府收入、居民收入、削减影响较大行业的生产税、以及用于非化石能源投资,2020年所能实现的减排量分别相当于CO2排放强度在2005年的基础上下降35.87%、35.80%、35.07%和40.13%,非化石能源的消费量将占到总消费量的10.99%、11.00%、10.75%和15.82%。政策情景下对经济的影响并不是十分显著,GDP的损失不超过0.2%。综合考虑到减排效益和经济影响,将碳税收入用作对非化石能源的投资,不仅有利于促进我国实现2020年碳排放强度目标,而且对于实现非化石能源发展目标也发挥着重要的作用。
[Abstract]:In order to evaluate the economic and environmental impact of achieving China's 2020 carbon emission intensity and non-fossil energy development goals, a Chinese energy-environment-economy model based on dynamic CGE model is applied in this paper. The emission-reduction effect and economic impact of different emission reduction policies are simulated. The simulation results show that the 40 yuan / t CO2 carbon tax will be used as government revenue, residents' income and production tax, which will affect larger industries, will be reduced. As well as the investment in non-fossil energy, the emission reduction that can be realized in 2020 is equivalent to the reduction of CO2 emission intensity by 35.870.80 35.07% and 40.1313% respectively on the basis of 2005. The consumption of non-fossil energy will account for 10.999.00% and 15.82% of the total consumption. The impact on the economy under the policy scenario is not very significant and the GDP loss does not exceed 0.2. Considering the efficiency of emission reduction and economic impact, using carbon tax revenue as an investment in non-fossil energy is not only conducive to promoting China to achieve the 2020 carbon emission intensity target. Moreover, it also plays an important role in realizing the development goal of non-fossil energy.
【作者单位】：中国科学院研究生院;中国科学院虚拟经济与数据科学研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71173212);国家自然科学基金地球科学部青年基金项目(41101556)
【分类号】：F123;X196

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