条件价值评估的有效性与可靠性改善——理论、方法与应用

发布时间：2018-06-20 01:22

本文选题：条件价值评估 + 偏差和误差　；参考：《生态学报》2011年10期

【摘要】：CVM可靠性、有效性改善源于CVM范围效应、WTA与WTP之差、引导技术选择、假想偏差、信息效应、策略偏差和次序效应等7种偏差和误差的降低。以长江流域南京段生态系统恢复条件价值评估为例,对CVM有效性、可靠性改善的理论和方法进行了应用,具体包括:(1)选用WTP而非WTA的估值方式;(2)选用二分式选择法作为问卷的引导技术,并利用开放式和支付卡式问卷进行二次预调查以获得二分式选择问卷的核心估值;(3)以图文并茂的方式向受访者介绍调查背景,并用受访者更熟悉的"长江水质恢复到可游泳水平"替代所要评估的环境物品"长江流域生态系统恢复;"(4)分析受访者意图以区分抗议性回答和真实零支付;(5)采用分层随机抽样的方式选取并发放大样本;(6)调查中采用面对面的方式并培训调查员;(7)选用切实可行但强制性高的支付工具;(8)利用中值法而非均值法估计WTP分布函数;(9)选择对数模型而非水平估算模型测算WTP值。综合利用上述方法所测得的南京市居民对长江流域生态系统恢复的支付意愿为270.7元/(户.a),此研究结果可为南京市制定"十二五"水价改革方案提供科学依据。
[Abstract]:The reliability and efficiency improvement of CVM is due to the difference between WTA and WTP, the selection of guiding technology, the hypothetical deviation, the information effect, the policy deviation and the order effect. Taking the assessment of ecosystem restoration condition value in Nanjing section of the Yangtze River Basin as an example, the theory and method of effectiveness and reliability improvement of CVM are applied. Specific examples include: 1) selecting WTP instead of WTA as a valuation method. (2) selecting dichotomy as the guiding technique for the questionnaire. And using the open and payment card questionnaire to carry out a second pre-survey to obtain the core valuation of the dichotomous selection questionnaire. (3) introducing the survey background to the interviewees in a picturesque and textual way. And more familiar to the interviewee, "Water quality Restoration to Swimming level of the Yangtze River" instead of "ecosystem Restoration of the Yangtze River Basin" to be assessed; "4) Analysis of interviewees' intention to distinguish protesting responses from real zero payments. Selection and distribution of large samples by stratified random sampling (6) Face-to-face approach and training of investigators in the survey.) selection of practical, but mandatory, high payment tools, Kuan 8) estimation of WTP distribution function using the median method rather than the mean method The logarithmic model was chosen instead of the horizontal estimation model to calculate the WTP value. The willingness of Nanjing residents to pay for the restoration of ecosystem in the Yangtze River basin is 270.7 yuan / a, which can provide scientific basis for Nanjing to formulate the water price reform plan in the 12th Five-Year Plan.
【作者单位】：南京林业大学经济管理学院;江阴职业技术学院;
【基金】：江苏教育厅“青蓝工程”学术带头人基金项目(2009) 中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(20100471344) 江苏高校哲学社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(2010JDXM017)
【分类号】：X196

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