西部地区的经济发展模式与碳排放量增长关系的实证研究——基于产业转型及消费升级的视角

发布时间：2018-08-11 14:08

【摘要】：随着"西部大开发"战略的深入实施,西部地区已经成为我国经济发展最快的区域,然而西部经济的快速增长已经造成了碳排放量的大幅增加,严重影响了我国节能减排目标的实现。为了有效地控制西部地区碳排放量的急速增加,我们必须全面分析引致西部碳排放量增加的主要因素。本文在已有研究的基础上,从西部地区产业转型和消费升级的视角出发,利用1991年-2009年的省际面板数据对西部地区的经济发展模式与碳排放量增长之间的相关关系及其传导机制进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:自进入20世纪90年代以来,西部地区的经济发展与碳排放量增长之间存在显著的正相关关系,而且在西部大开发战略实施以后,这种关系更加显著。同时,检验还发现西部地区的消费升级和产业转型对碳排放量增加产生重要影响,其中三次产业间结构变动的影响系数达到16.4,二次产业内部采掘业和重工业比重上升的影响系数达到14.3,人均居住支出和人均交通支出的影响系数也分别达到5.6和6.5,而传统的人口规模、收入规模则对西部地区碳排放量的影响微弱,影响系数仅为0.73和0.86。因此在制定西部地区"十二五"节能减排战略时,需要更多的从消费升级和产业转型的视角出发。
[Abstract]:With the implementation of the strategy of "the Great Development of the West", the western region has become the fastest growing region in our country. However, the rapid growth of the western economy has resulted in a large increase in carbon emissions. It seriously affects the realization of energy saving and emission reduction target in China. In order to effectively control the rapid increase of carbon emissions in the western region, we must comprehensively analyze the main factors leading to the increase of carbon emissions in the western region. Based on the existing research, this paper starts from the perspective of industrial transformation and consumption upgrading in the western region. Using the inter-provincial panel data from 1991 to 2009, this paper empirically tests the correlation between the economic development model and the carbon emission growth in the western region and its transmission mechanism. The test results show that there is a significant positive correlation between economic development and carbon emission growth in the western region since the 1990s, and this relationship is more significant after the implementation of the strategy of developing the western region. At the same time, the test also found that consumption upgrading and industrial transformation in the western region have an important impact on the increase of carbon emissions. Among them, the influence coefficient of the structural changes among the three industries reached 16.4, the influence coefficient of the increase of the proportion of the extractive industry and heavy industry in the secondary industry reached 14.3, the impact coefficient of the per capita living expenditure and the per capita transportation expenditure also reached 5.6 and 6.5 respectively. And the traditional size of the population, The impact of income on carbon emissions in the western region is only 0.73 and 0.86. Therefore, in formulating the "12th Five-Year Plan" energy saving and emission reduction strategy in the western region, it is necessary to start from the perspective of consumption upgrading and industrial transformation.
【作者单位】：西安财经学院资源环境与区域经济研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目(编号:08BJL038) 陕西省软科学项目(编号:2009KRM015) 陕西(高校)哲学社会科学特色学科建设项目
【分类号】：X196

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