气候变化的不确定性及其经济影响与政策含义
发布时间：2018-09-17 19:43
【摘要】：气候变化面临着大量的不确定性,因此不确定性就成为气候变化经济学研究的一个重点和难点。传统的成本收益方法都假定气候敏感性服从标准正态分布,并在此基础上设定效用函数和损失函数。斯特恩对这些方法提出了批评,指出气候变化问题不适用于边际分析。继《斯特恩报告》之后,以哈佛大学的魏茨曼为代表的经济学家对气候变化经济学中的结构性不确定性展开研究。魏茨曼指出气候敏感性应服从厚尾分布,这一观点既具有气候自然科学方面的基础,也得到了众多经济学家的认可。而传统的成本收益方法由于假定气候敏感性服从瘦尾分布,因此对气候敏感性、效用函数和损失函数的设定都存在偏误,从而低估了未来气候灾难发生的可能性及其可能造成的损害的程度。围绕厚尾分布的观点,魏茨曼提出并证明了"悲观定理",这一定理表明人们为了避免未来的气候灾难,愿意牺牲当前部分甚至全部的消费,从而在理论上揭示了不确定条件下气候变化公共决策的理论依据。他指出当前的减缓投资相当于是为了避免未来气候灾难的"保险",而当前减排行动所依据的正是预防原则。预防原则的来源,则是气候灾难这种小概率、大影响事件所导致的恐惧因素或者模糊厌恶。实证研究的结果表明,依据厚尾分布改变气候敏感性和损失函数,未来气候灾难可能带来的损失要远大于传统模型的结果。基于以上理由,魏茨曼批判了以诺德豪斯为代表的"缓行战略"和"气候政策斜坡"的政策建议,从而间接支持了《斯特恩报告》立即大幅减缓的观点。
[Abstract]:Climate change is facing a lot of uncertainties, so uncertainty has become an important and difficult point in the study of climate change economics. The traditional cost-benefit methods assume that the climate-sensitive service is distributed according to the standard normal distribution, and on this basis, the utility function and the loss function are set up. Stern criticized these approaches, pointing out that climate change issues do not apply to marginal analysis. Following the Stern report, economists, represented by Harvard University's Weizman, studied structural uncertainties in the economics of climate change. Weizman pointed out that climate sensitivity should be distributed from a thick tail, a view that is based on both climate science and many economists. However, because the traditional cost-benefit method assumes that the climate sensitive clothing is distributed from the thin tail, there are errors in setting the climate sensitivity, utility function and loss function. This underestimates the likelihood of future climate disasters and the extent of possible damage. Around the idea of thick-tailed distribution, Weizman put forward and proved the "pessimistic theorem", which must show that people are willing to sacrifice some or all of their current consumption in order to avoid future climate disasters. Therefore, the theoretical basis of public decision making on climate change under uncertain conditions is revealed theoretically. He pointed out that the current mitigation investment is equivalent to "insurance" to avoid future climate disasters, and that the current action to reduce emissions is based on the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle originates from the small probability of climate disasters, fear factors or vague aversion caused by major events. The results of empirical study show that according to the change of climate sensitivity and loss function based on the thick tail distribution, the potential loss caused by climate disaster in the future is much larger than that of the traditional model. For these reasons, Weizman criticized the policy recommendations of the "slow Strategy" and the "Climate Policy Slope" represented by Nordhouse, which indirectly supported the view that the Stern report was immediately and substantially reduced.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学研究生院;中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题“IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响”(编号:2012BAC20B05)
【分类号】：F069.9
[Abstract]:Climate change is facing a lot of uncertainties, so uncertainty has become an important and difficult point in the study of climate change economics. The traditional cost-benefit methods assume that the climate-sensitive service is distributed according to the standard normal distribution, and on this basis, the utility function and the loss function are set up. Stern criticized these approaches, pointing out that climate change issues do not apply to marginal analysis. Following the Stern report, economists, represented by Harvard University's Weizman, studied structural uncertainties in the economics of climate change. Weizman pointed out that climate sensitivity should be distributed from a thick tail, a view that is based on both climate science and many economists. However, because the traditional cost-benefit method assumes that the climate sensitive clothing is distributed from the thin tail, there are errors in setting the climate sensitivity, utility function and loss function. This underestimates the likelihood of future climate disasters and the extent of possible damage. Around the idea of thick-tailed distribution, Weizman put forward and proved the "pessimistic theorem", which must show that people are willing to sacrifice some or all of their current consumption in order to avoid future climate disasters. Therefore, the theoretical basis of public decision making on climate change under uncertain conditions is revealed theoretically. He pointed out that the current mitigation investment is equivalent to "insurance" to avoid future climate disasters, and that the current action to reduce emissions is based on the precautionary principle. The precautionary principle originates from the small probability of climate disasters, fear factors or vague aversion caused by major events. The results of empirical study show that according to the change of climate sensitivity and loss function based on the thick tail distribution, the potential loss caused by climate disaster in the future is much larger than that of the traditional model. For these reasons, Weizman criticized the policy recommendations of the "slow Strategy" and the "Climate Policy Slope" represented by Nordhouse, which indirectly supported the view that the Stern report was immediately and substantially reduced.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学研究生院;中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所;
【基金】：“十二五”国家科技支撑计划课题“IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响”(编号:2012BAC20B05)
【分类号】：F069.9
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