北京市水土资源对经济增长的阻尼效应研究

发布时间：2018-11-08 12:22

【摘要】：国内学者借鉴"增长阻尼"的研究方法,认为中国经济增长速度由于水土资源的限制每年下降1.45%,但由于在模型和数据选取存在一定的不足,并忽略了投入要素之间的替代关系,使得所计算出的阻尼系数并不符合实际情况。因此,本文针对当前资源阻尼效应研究所存在的不足,对北京市水土资源阻尼系数进行了计算和分析,结果表明水土资源阻尼系数都围绕着经济增长上下波动,因产业结构升级和资源集约利用,北京市水资源阻尼效应从2002年开始逐渐减弱;土地资源阻尼效应在1998年-2008年期间有所缓解,但2008年以后又开始围绕经济增长上下波动,深入研究后得出由于技术进步发挥了要素替代作用,短期内缓解了资源约束;但要最终解决资源约束,必须依靠要素替代和产业结构调整共同作用。此外,对于资源短缺地区,只有通过市场机制利用外部资源,才是解决资源约束的有效途径。
[Abstract]:The domestic scholars draw lessons from the research method of "growth damping", and think that the economic growth rate of China drops by 1.45 per year due to the limitation of water and soil resources, but there are some deficiencies in the selection of models and data. The substitution relationship between input elements is neglected, so the calculated damping coefficient does not accord with the actual situation. Therefore, in view of the deficiency of the current research on the damping effect of water and soil resources, this paper calculates and analyzes the damping coefficient of water and soil resources in Beijing. The results show that the damping coefficients of water and soil resources fluctuate around the economic growth. Due to the upgrading of industrial structure and intensive utilization of resources, the damping effect of water resources in Beijing has gradually weakened since 2002. The damping effect of land resources was alleviated from 1998 to 2008, but after 2008, it began to fluctuate around the economic growth. But in order to solve the resource constraint, we must depend on the element substitution and the adjustment of industrial structure. In addition, only by using external resources through market mechanism is an effective way to solve resource constraints.
【作者单位】：中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所;中国科学院研究生院;
【基金】：国家科技基础性工作专项重点项目:“中国北方及其毗邻地区综合科学考察”(编号:2007FY110300)
【分类号】：F062.1

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