中国交通碳排放空间计量分析

发布时间：2018-12-13 13:53

【摘要】：基于1995～2010年中国28省市的统计数据,运用空间计量经济学方法分析了中国城市规模扩张过程中交通碳排放所隐藏在时空格局和演变趋势背后的内在机制;采用经济增长收敛理论,分析了中国28个省市的交通碳排放量的分布特征和收敛性。研究表明:①中国交通碳排放在空间上具有集聚倾向,各省市的平均自发交通碳排放水平相同,但各省市的自发交通碳排放水平存在较大差异,沿海发达地区交通碳排放量较高,西部地区较低;②其间,中国交通碳排放虽然不存在一致σ收敛,但存在16阶段(年)σ收敛和β绝对收敛性,β绝对收敛速度约为8.3%;③在长期均衡状态下,人均GDP、城市建成区面积、车均能耗对交通碳排放的弹性分别约为0.93、0.34、0.65。基于研究,提出了中国交通碳减排的政策取向。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical data of 28 provinces and cities in China from 1995 to 2010, this paper analyzes the internal mechanism of the transport carbon emissions hidden behind the space-time pattern and the evolution trend in the process of urban scale expansion in China by using the spatial econometric method. Based on the theory of economic growth convergence, the distribution characteristics and convergence of transport carbon emissions in 28 provinces and cities in China are analyzed. The results show that: (1) China's traffic carbon emissions tend to be concentrated in space, and the average spontaneous transport carbon emissions are the same in different provinces and cities, but there are great differences between different provinces and cities. The transportation carbon emission is higher in the developed coastal areas and lower in the western regions. (2) although there is no uniform 蟽 convergence in China's traffic carbon emissions, there exists 16 stage (year) 蟽 convergence and 尾 absolute convergence, and the 尾 absolute convergence rate is about 8.3%; 3 under the condition of long-term equilibrium, the elasticity of the area of the urban built-up area and the energy consumption per vehicle per capita to the traffic carbon emission is about 0.93n0.34n0.65respectively. Based on the research, the policy orientation of carbon emission reduction in China is put forward.
【作者单位】：湖南工业大学全球低碳城市联合研究中心;
【基金】：中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2012029)
【分类号】：X196;F512;F224.0

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