基于风险分析的公路BT项目回购价定价方法研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 01:20

本文关键词：基于风险分析的公路BT项目回购价定价方法研究　出处：《重庆交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国对公路项目等基础设施建设投入持续增长，但有限的政府资金已成为制约基础设施建设的“瓶颈”。近年来，在公路项目建设中广泛采用的BT模式在吸引社会资金参与公路项目建设、缓解政府的资金压力和不断提高路网水平和服务功能上发挥了重要作用。在公路项目BT投融资模式中，确定回购价是最核心的内容之一。公路BT项目由于其投资金额大，工程技术复杂，参与主体关系复杂，建设和回购周期长等大量不确定因素影响，使BT回购价确定具有风险性。本文从公路BT项目回购价受各种不确定风险因素影响角度，研究公路BT项目回购价定价问题，对于完善公路BT项目回购价定价机制、进而完善BT项目定价理论和促进公路建设投融资持续发展，都具有主要现实意义和理论价值。本文是从投资者的角度分析研究公路BT项目回购价定价问题，研究了现有公路BT项目回购定价相关问题和不足，提出了建立基于风险分析的回购价模型的必要性。首先研究了公路BT模式和回购价定价的不确定风险特征，研究了公路BT模式回购价的组成和影响机理。然后深入研究了影响公路BT项目回购价的风险因素和影响关系，建立了风险因素集；在此基础上，建立了模糊风险递阶辨识模型。其次根据公路BT模式回购价的特点，构造了风险影响关系图，建立了具体的公路BT回购价风险决策模型，并对模型中各风险变量的特征和取值定价方法，与现行的定价模型进行对比研究；本论文从回购成本的角度出发，采用蒙特卡罗模拟的方法，得到回购成本的波动范围及概率分布曲线，结合该曲线投资者可进行回购价风险决策决策，该成果为同时为政府和公路BT项目投资人协商回购价，提供了合理科学的依据。最后，通过建立VaR模型确定公路BT项目的投资回报的风险收益，，为BT项目投资人提供了对公路BT项目投资效率评价参考和决策判据。本文基于风险分析建立的回购价定价模型在回购价定价方法上是一种新的探索，完善和丰富了公路BT项目回购价定价理论，同时为投资者参与BT融资项目作出合理的风险决策和保障自身的利益提供了借鉴。
[Abstract]:China's highway infrastructure construction projects such as investment continues to grow, but the limited government funds has become the bottleneck of the infrastructure construction of the "bottleneck". In recent years, widely used in highway construction projects of BT pattern to attract social capital to participate in the highway project construction, alleviate the government's financial pressure and continuously improve the network level and service function played an important role. In the mode of investment and financing of highway project in BT, determine the repurchase price is one of the core content. The highway BT project because of its large amount of investment, construction technology is complex, involved in the main complex relationship, construction and repurchase period is long and a lot of uncertain factors, which determine the risk of repurchase price of BT this article from the highway BT project. The repurchase price is affected by many uncertain factors affecting the risk point of view, research of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem, to improve the repurchase price of the pricing mechanism for highway BT project, It is of great practical significance and theoretical value to further improve the BT project pricing theory and promote the sustainable development of highway construction investment and financing.
This paper is the analysis of highway BT project repurchase pricing problem from the perspective of investors, on the problems related to the repurchase pricing of existing highway BT project and the insufficiency, puts forward the necessity of establishing the repurchase price model based on the risk analysis. Firstly studies the uncertain risk characteristics of highway BT model and the repurchase price pricing mechanism, composition and influence study on the highway BT model. The repurchase price risk factors and effect relationship and in-depth study of the impact of highway BT project repurchase price, established risk factors set; on this basis, a hierarchical fuzzy risk identification model. Secondly according to the characteristics of highway repurchase price of BT mode, constructs the risk influence diagram, establish highway BT repurchase price risk decision model of concrete, and the risk variables in the model characteristics and value pricing method, compared with the current pricing model; this paper from the back The purchase cost perspective, by using the method of Monte Carlo simulation, get the fluctuation range of return cost and probability distribution curve, the curve can be combined with investors repurchase price risk decision-making, the results at the same time as the government and highway BT project investor negotiation repurchase price, provide a reasonable scientific basis. Finally, determine the highway BT project return on investment through the establishment of VaR model for BT project risk return, investors provided for highway BT project investment efficiency evaluation reference and decision criterion.
The repurchase pricing model is established to analyze the risk based on the repurchase price pricing method is a new exploration, improve and enrich the highway BT project repurchase pricing theory, and safeguard their own interests and provide reference for investors to participate in the BT project financing risk decision made reasonable.

【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F542;F285

【参考文献】