产业结构调整对我国运输服务贸易的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-09 23:08

本文关键词：产业结构调整对我国运输服务贸易的影响研究　出处：《广东外语外贸大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：2012年，我国货物贸易进出口总额为38679亿美元，位居世界第二位。而当年同期，我国运输服务贸易的逆差额为46949.44亿美元，与货物贸易大国的地位极其不符。我国运输服务贸易长期处于逆差状态，对于我国对外贸易乃至国民经济的发展都是极其不利的。一国的交通运输服务业是国民经济发展的基础，良好的交通运输体系能够为社会发展和人民生活水平的提高提供重要物质保障。影响交通运输服务业的因素很多，产业结构是其中最为重要的一个因素之一。国民经济不同的产业结构，会在质与量上对运输服务贸易提出不同需求。当一国运输服务贸易的发展无法满足上述质与量的需求变化时，运输服务贸易逆差就此产生。因此，分析产业结构调整对我国运输服务贸易逆差的影响具有重要的理论价值与实际意义。本文首先梳理了国内外关于产业结构调整及运输服务贸易的研究成果，为后续研究奠定理论基础。其次，在前文理论研究的基础上，构建了以运输服务贸易逆差额为因变量，初级产品及工业制成品进、出口额为自变量的多元回归分析模型。接着，利用Eviews5.0软件对所构建的多元回归模型进行实证分析，结果表明：我国初级产品进口额和工业制成品出口额与运输服务贸易逆差额之间存在显著相关性，，而初级产品出口额和工业制成品进口额与运输服务贸易逆差额之间不存在明显的相关性，即初级产品进口额和工业制成品出口额的增长是导致我国运输服务贸易逆差额逐年增长的主要影响因素。最后，在实证研究结果的基础上，本文针对如何优化产业结构，缩小运输服务贸易逆差提出了合理建议。
[Abstract]:In 2012, the total value of China's import and export of goods was three tillion eight hundred and sixty-seven billion nine hundred million US dollars, ranking the second in the world, while in the same period of that year, the reverse difference of China's trade in transport services was four tillion six hundred and ninety-four billion nine hundred and forty-four million US dollars. It is very inconsistent with the status of a big country in goods trade. China's transport service trade has been in deficit for a long time. It is extremely disadvantageous to the development of our country's foreign trade and even the national economy. The transportation service industry of a country is the foundation of the national economy development. A good transportation system can provide important material guarantee for the development of society and the improvement of people's living standard. There are many factors that affect the transportation service industry. Industrial structure is one of the most important factors. Different industrial structure of national economy. When the development of transport services trade in a country can not meet the demand changes of quality and quantity, the trade deficit of transport services will arise. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to analyze the influence of industrial structure adjustment on China's trade deficit in transport services. This paper firstly combs the domestic and foreign research results on industrial structure adjustment and transport service trade to lay a theoretical foundation for the follow-up study. Secondly, on the basis of the previous theoretical research. A multivariate regression model with the inverse difference of transport services trade as dependent variable, primary products and manufactured goods as independent variables, and exports as independent variables is constructed. Eviews5.0 software is used to analyze the multivariate regression model. The results show that there is a significant correlation between the import volume of primary products and the export value of manufactured goods and the reverse balance of trade in transport services. However, there is no significant correlation between the export value of primary products and imports of manufactured goods and the inverse balance of trade in transport services. That is to say, the increase of primary product import and the export of manufactured goods are the main factors that cause the reverse balance of China's trade in transport services to increase year by year. Finally, on the basis of empirical research results. This paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions on how to optimize the industrial structure and reduce the trade deficit in transport services.
【学位授予单位】：广东外语外贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F121.3;F512;F752.68

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