高速铁路快捷货物运输市场发展研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 11:02

本文关键词： 高铁快运 MNL模型效用函数分担率双层规划　出处：《兰州交通大学》2016年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济发展、产业结构变化、电商行业交易量激增,产生越来越多小批量、多批次的高附加值货物运输需求,给运输企业带来了很大的挑战与机遇。传统铁路运输运量大、业务办理复杂的特点使其在快捷货物运输市场失去了发展先机。为了扭转这种不利局面,铁路总公司提倡发展高速铁路货物运输,利用高铁线路空闲时间,开行货物列车,增加运输收入。本文在此背景下,对现运输通道内的托运人进行调查分析,主要研究内容如下:(1)了解铁路企业针对快捷货物开发的货运产品,分析铁路快运产品存在的问题;(2)研究国外高铁快捷货运列车的开行过程,得到适用于我国开展高铁货运业务的经验,并从运行速度、线路建设等方面分析高铁货运列车开行的可行性,提出符合我国高速铁路建设及实际运营特点的三种高速铁路快运列车组织模式;(3)从整个快捷货物运输通道出发,运用非集计模型研究快捷货物运输方式选择行为。对货运通道内的托运人做RP/SP调查,根据RP调查数据,分析托运人的个人社会特征对运输方式选择行为的影响;根据SP调查数据,建立MNL(Mutinominal Logit Model)模型,确定各运输方式的效用函数,利用Nlogit软件进行参数标定,通过效用函数求得各运输方式的分担率,研究高铁快捷货运进入运输通道后的市场竞争力;(4)对托运人的个人选择行为进行分析,引入个人偏好和效用理论。确定影响托运人选择行为的主要因素,根据效用最大化行为假说,完成托运人运输方式选择方案;在此基础上,根据托运人的初选方案,建立双层规划模型,研究承运人的激励措施对托运人选择行为的影响,并设计嵌套遗传算法求解模型。使承运人最终得到能够改变托运人运输方式选择的有效激励措施,帮助高铁快运更好地适应市场。(5)对“广州—长沙”OD对间的托运人进行实地调查,运用获得的数据完成实例分析。预测了高铁快捷货运作为新的运输方式进入运输通道后,其所占有的运输分担率;通过分析承运人的激励措施与托运人运输方式选择之间的关系,提出适应市场发展的运输服务调整策略。
[Abstract]:With the development of our economy and the change of industrial structure, the volume of e-commerce trade has increased dramatically, which has produced more and more small batches and lots of high value-added goods transportation demand. It brings great challenges and opportunities to the transportation enterprises. The traditional railway transportation volume is large and the business management is complicated, which makes it lose the first opportunity to develop in the express freight transportation market. In order to reverse this unfavorable situation. Railway Corporation advocates the development of high-speed railway freight transport, using the free time of high-speed rail lines, running freight trains to increase transport income. In this context, the shippers in the existing transport channels are investigated and analyzed. The main research contents are as follows: (1) to understand the freight products developed by railway enterprises for express cargo, and to analyze the problems existing in railway express transport products; 2) study the operation process of foreign high-speed express freight train, get the experience of developing high-speed rail freight service in our country, and analyze the feasibility of high-speed rail freight train operation from the aspects of running speed, line construction and so on. Three kinds of fast train organization modes of high speed railway are put forward, which accord with the characteristics of construction and operation of high speed railway in China. Starting from the whole express freight transport channel, using the disaggregate model to study the choice behavior of the express freight transport mode. The shippers in the freight corridor are investigated by RP/SP, and according to the data of RP survey. Analyze the influence of the shippers' individual social characteristics on the choice of transport mode; According to SP survey data, the MNL(Mutinominal Logit Model model is established to determine the utility function of each mode of transportation. Nlogit software is used to calibrate the parameters, and the utility function is used to calculate the share rate of each mode of transportation, and the market competitiveness of high-speed express freight after entering the transportation channel is studied. 4) analyzing the individual choice behavior of shippers, introducing personal preference and utility theory, and determining the main factors that affect the shipper's choice behavior, according to the hypothesis of utility maximization behavior. Completion of the shipper's mode of transport options; Based on this, a bilevel programming model is established to study the influence of carrier incentives on the shipper's choice behavior according to the shipper's primary selection scheme. The nested genetic algorithm is designed to solve the model so that the carrier can finally get an effective incentive to change the choice of the shipper's transportation mode. To help high-speed rail express better adapt to the market. 5) to "Guangzhou-Changsha" OD pairs of shippers to conduct field investigations. Using the obtained data to complete the case analysis, the paper predicts the transportation share rate of high-speed express freight after it enters the transportation channel as a new mode of transportation. Based on the analysis of the relationship between carrier's incentive measures and shippers' choice of transport mode, the adjustment strategy of transport services adapted to the development of market is put forward.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U294.1;F532.6

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