铁路投资政策对铁路货运的影响机制研究

发布时间：2018-01-27 23:53

本文关键词： 铁路货运投资政策系统动力学铁路投资铁路投资投向　出处：《北京交通大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：摘要：自21世纪初开始,中国国民经济增长速度一直维持在一个较高水平,铁路货运供给量增长速度却相对滞后,路网密度与经济发展水平不符,无法满足各产业发展所生成的铁路货运需求,逐渐形成了制约中国经济发展的“瓶颈”。因此中国政府非常重视对铁路货运的投资,先后制定多项政策,推动铁路行业投融资体制改革,吸收多元主体投资,增加对铁路行业的总投入,提高铁路货运供给能力,增强基础保障能力,适应经济发展要求。关于投资对铁路货运的影响的量化研究因此受到重视,本文以此为出发点尝试采用系统动力学模型来研究投资政策对铁路货运的影响机制。本文研究了铁路投资与铁路货运之间的互动关系,定性分析两者之间的影响机制,从宏观角度,对影响中国铁路货运的各项因素进行定量和定性相结合的分析,研究各项因素间的因果关系,并建立铁路投资对货运影响的系统动力学模型。运用系统动力学软件vensim,量化分析了铁路投资对铁路货运的影响,并针对铁路投资量和投资投向结构等政策因素,构造不同的政策模拟,得出不同投资量和投资投向结构下铁路货运和铁路货运收入的变化趋势。论文的结论为,适度增加铁路行业投资量和合理调整投资结构有利于中国铁路货运发展。
[Abstract]:Abstract: since the beginning of 21th century, China's national economic growth rate has been maintained at a higher level, the railway freight supply growth rate is relatively lagging behind, road network density and economic development level is not consistent. Unable to meet the demand of railway freight transport generated by the development of various industries, the Chinese government has gradually formed a "bottleneck" that restricts the development of China's economy. Therefore, the Chinese government attaches great importance to the investment in railway freight transport and has formulated many policies one after another. We will promote the reform of the investment and financing system of the railway industry, absorb the investment of multiple subjects, increase the total investment in the railway industry, improve the supply capacity of railway freight transport, and enhance the capacity of basic support. In order to meet the requirements of economic development, the quantitative research on the impact of investment on railway freight transport has been paid attention to. This paper tries to use system dynamics model to study the influence mechanism of investment policy on railway freight transport. This paper studies the interactive relationship between railway investment and railway freight, and qualitatively analyzes the influence mechanism between them, from a macro perspective. The factors affecting Chinese railway freight are analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively, and the causality among these factors is studied. The influence of railway investment on freight transport is analyzed quantitatively by using the system dynamics software vensim. and the system dynamics model of railway investment on freight transportation is established. Aiming at the policy factors such as railway investment amount and investment investment structure, different policy simulation is constructed, and the change trend of railway freight and railway freight revenue under different investment and investment investment structure is obtained. The conclusion of this paper is as follows. A moderate increase in the amount of investment in the railway industry and a rational adjustment of the investment structure are conducive to the development of China's railway freight transport.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F532

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