中国工业化与运输化分区域相互关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-28 08:55

本文关键词： 工业化运输化区域互动 VAR　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：运输化是社会经济发展的前提条件,与工业化相伴相生。随着工业化进程的不断推进,工业化与运输化之间的互动关系也会在总量、结构和质量上随着时间和区域的不同存在差异性。尤其是我国幅员辽阔,地理环境、历史演变的差异导致我国不同区域工业化、运输化水平显著不平衡。在如此差异之下它们之间相互作用特征也会存在显著差异性。在理论分析方面,本文首先在前人研究成果的基础上对工业化和运输化进行概念界定,构建工业化与运输化相互作用的理论框架,并对我国工业化与运输化发展从总量、结构和质量上进行了一个整体的观测和把控,初步判定二者的发展趋势,总结和寻找二者的规律以及相关性。根据人均GDP、产业结构、制造业结构、城镇化率和就业结构综合衡量和划分当前我国整体以及东中西部典型区域的工业化水平和所处的阶段进程。基于这样一种理论前提与区域划分,在实证研究方面,本文利用我国2000-2015年典型区域的时间序列数据,选取向量自回归模型(VAR),运用脉冲响应分析方法,分析我国东、中、西部的典型区域(东部沿海地区、长江中游地区、大西北地区)工业化与运输化相互动态影响关系。结果表明..工业化发展与运输化发展的相互关系存在地区差异,主要体现在工业化水平较低的地区,工业化与运输化的相互作用主要体现在第二产业与运输化总量层面的互动;工业化水平发展到一定阶段,工业化对运输化的作用由运输总量开始扩展到对运输化质量的促进作用,而运输化发展也开始在质量维度对工业化产生正向作用;工业化发展到比较高级的阶段,工业化与运输化在总量层面的相互作用开始减弱,工业化与运输化在质量层面的相互作用开始凸显,且在互动关系中第三产业开始起到更重要的作用。本文主要研究结论包括三个方面:(1)一个地区随着工业化水平和阶段的不同,工业化与运输化相互关系的作用特征不尽相同;(2)我国不同经济区工业化与运输化发展水平存在比较明显的差异;(3)我国工业化水平高的东部地区工业化与运输化相互关系有从总量层面到质量层面发展的趋势,且互动过程中第三产业扮演着越来越重要的角色;在工业化水平不够发达地区(如长江中游与大西北地区)主要任务是提高经济水平,发展第二产业,而工业化与运输化的总量之间存在显著的互动作用,尤其是中部地区,承接了东部地区产业转移,有很大的发展潜力,工业化与运输化之间在各个层面的互动关系最为显著。最后,文章根据研究的结论提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Transportation is the prerequisite of social and economic development, and it is accompanied by industrialization. With the continuous progress of industrialization, the interaction between industrialization and transport will also be in the total amount. In terms of structure and quality, there are differences between different regions and time, especially the differences of China's vast territory, geographical environment and historical evolution lead to the industrialization of different regions in China. The level of transport is significantly unbalanced. Under such differences, there will also be significant differences in the characteristics of their interactions. Firstly, this paper defines the concept of industrialization and transportalization on the basis of previous research results, constructs the theoretical framework of the interaction between industrialization and transportalization, and develops the total amount of industrialization and transportalization in China. The structure and quality of a whole observation and control, preliminary determine the development trend of the two, sum up and find out the law and correlation between the two, according to per capita GDP, industrial structure, manufacturing structure. The urbanization rate and employment structure synthetically measure and divide the industrialization level and the process of the typical regions in the east, west and west of China. Based on such a theoretical premise and regional division. In the empirical research, this paper uses the time series data of China's typical regions from 2000 to 2015, selects the vector autoregressive model (VARA), and uses the impulse response analysis method to analyze the east and the middle of China. Typical areas in the west (eastern coastal areas, middle reaches of the Yangtze River). The results show that there are regional differences between industrialization development and transportation development, mainly in the areas with low industrialization level. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is mainly reflected in the interaction between the secondary industry and the total amount of transportation. Industrialization level developed to a certain stage, the effect of industrialization on transportation began to expand from the total amount of transport to the promotion of transport quality, and the development of transport began to produce positive effects on industrialization in the quality dimension. Industrialization developed to a higher stage, industrialization and transport in the total level of interaction began to weaken, industrialization and transport in the quality level of the interaction began to highlight. And in the interaction between the tertiary industry began to play a more important role. The main conclusions of this paper include three aspects: 1) A region with different levels and stages of industrialization. The interaction between industrialization and transportation is different. 2) there are obvious differences between industrialization and transportation development level in different economic zones in China; 3) the relationship between industrialization and transportation in the east of China with high industrialization level has a tendency from the total quantity level to the quality level, and the tertiary industry plays a more and more important role in the interactive process. In the underdeveloped areas (such as the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the northwest of the Yangtze River), the main task is to improve the economic level and develop the secondary industry, and there is a significant interaction between the industrialization and the total amount of transportation. In particular, the central region, to undertake the eastern region of industrial transfer, there is a great potential for development, industrialization and transport between the most significant interaction at all levels. Finally. According to the conclusions of the study, the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F424;F512

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