高速铁路与民航客运竞争及协同发展研究

发布时间：2018-02-02 23:57

本文关键词： 高速客运竞争关系协同发展双层规划多目标规划　出处：《大连海事大学》2012年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：根据高铁和民航规划,未来一个时期我国高铁和民航将呈现快速发展势头,在中东部地区形成密集的高速客运网络。这两种运输方式均以实现旅客快速运输为目的,运输产品的高度一致性,决定了两者在客运方面存在相互替代的关系,-并由此产生高度竞争的空间关系。从目前已经运营线路高铁和民航的经营状况来看,恶性竞争的态势已经凸显,如果继续维持这种各自为政、失衡发展的局面,势必造成巨大的人力、物力、财力的浪费。本文综合运用了运输经济学、技术经济学、博弈论等相关理论对高速铁路与民航客运相互竞争和协同发展等若干问题进行了深入研究。本文主要研究内容如下： (1)与本文研究相关的基础理论阐述。从交通运输业的属性,交通运输需求两个方面,对高速客运业的产业属性、社会属性、经济属性和高速客运的市场需求进行理论概述。在此基础之上,结合交通运输市场的含义、特征、作用和垄断市场行为,对高速客运市场的相关内涵进行分析,并详细叙述了高铁和民航这两种方式的技术经济特点。 (2)不同因素影响下的高速铁路与民航竞争关系分析。根据非集计的相关理论和计算方法,通过对影响旅客进行交通方式选择的宏观因素和微观因素的描述,选取影响因素,建立描述武广高铁沿线高速铁路与民航客运竞争的Binary Logit模型,设计调查问卷实地调查获得统计数据,根据因素间的相关性对影响数据进行剔除,对模型的参数进行标定。在此基础上,综合分析票价、旅程距离、程前程后时间和程前程后费用变化时,高速铁路与民航客运竞争关系的相应变化。 (3)以博弈论思想为核心的高速客运协同定价研究。以运输价格的形成因素、运输价格制定和均衡价格作为理论基础,根据斯坦科尔伯格模型对协同定价的过程进行分析,利用双层规划模型建立描述协同定价过程的定价模型,选择灵敏度分析的方法,结合武广两地高铁和民航的实际运营数据,在原始客流和诱发客流两种限制条件下,对武广两地高铁和民航进行协同定价分析。 (4)以广义建设费用最低和高速客运网络效率作为优化目标,对高铁与民航的协同布局进行研究。以高速铁路和民航客运实际建设成本作为分析数据,选取高速客运网络结构和高速客运服务质量评价的部分指标,建立双目标协同布局模型；以石家庄-广州高铁途经省份为研究区域,使用遗传算法对双目标函数进行加权求解,探讨不同目标权重下研究区域内拟建机场的布局,提出高铁与民航客运协同发展的相关建议。
[Abstract]:According to the high-speed rail and civil aviation plan, China's high-speed rail and civil aviation will show a rapid development momentum in the coming period. Intensive high-speed passenger transport network is formed in the central and eastern part of the country. Both of these two modes of transport are designed to realize rapid passenger transport. The high consistency of transport products determines the relationship between them in passenger transport. -and the resulting highly competitive spatial relationship. Judging from the current operating conditions of high-speed rail and civil aviation, the trend of vicious competition has been highlighted, and if this kind of separation continues to be maintained. The unbalanced development situation is bound to cause a huge waste of manpower, material resources and financial resources. Some related theories, such as game theory, have carried on the thorough research to the high-speed railway and the civil aviation passenger transport mutual competition and the coordinated development and so on several questions. The main research contents of this paper are as follows: From the attributes of transportation industry, transportation demand, the industrial attributes of high-speed passenger transport industry, social attributes. Economic attributes and high-speed passenger transport market demand theoretical overview. On this basis, combined with the meaning of the transport market, characteristics, role and monopoly market behavior, the high-speed passenger transport market related connotations are analyzed. And detailed description of high-speed rail and civil aviation these two ways of technical and economic characteristics. Analysis of the competitive relationship between high-speed railway and civil aviation under the influence of different factors. According to the relevant theory and calculation method of disaggregate. Through the description of macro and micro factors which affect the choice of traffic mode for passengers, select the influencing factors. A Binary Logit model was established to describe the competition between high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger transport along the Wu-Guang high-speed rail line, and a questionnaire was designed to obtain the statistical data. The parameters of the model are calibrated according to the correlation between the factors. On this basis, the changes of ticket price, distance, time and cost are analyzed comprehensively. The corresponding change of competition relation between high speed railway and civil aviation passenger transport. 3) the cooperative pricing of high-speed passenger transport with game theory as the core, taking the formation factor of transport price, the formulation of transport price and equilibrium price as the theoretical basis. Based on the Steinkelberg model, the process of collaborative pricing is analyzed. A pricing model describing the process of collaborative pricing is established by using a bilevel programming model, and a sensitivity analysis method is selected. Combined with the actual operation data of high-speed rail and civil aviation in Wuhan and Guangzhou, the cooperative pricing analysis of high-speed rail and civil aviation in Wuhan and Guangzhou is carried out under the two restriction conditions of original passenger flow and induced passenger flow. 4) taking the lowest construction cost and high speed passenger transport network efficiency as the optimization goal, the cooperative layout of high-speed railway and civil aviation is studied. The actual construction cost of high-speed railway and civil aviation passenger transportation is taken as the analysis data. Selecting some indexes of high-speed passenger transport network structure and quality of service evaluation of high-speed passenger transport, a two-objective cooperative layout model is established. Taking Shijiazhuang-Guangzhou high-speed rail transit province as the study area, the genetic algorithm is used to solve the double objective function weighted, and the layout of the proposed airport in the study area under different target weights is discussed. This paper puts forward some suggestions on the coordinated development of high-speed rail and civil aviation passenger transport.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F532;F562

【参考文献】