危险品公路运输成本的度量与控制研究

发布时间：2018-02-21 04:46

本文关键词： 危险品运输成本度量风险成本成本控制　出处：《烟台大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国工业的发展,危险品市场呈现出不断扩大的趋势,但是与市场规模不断扩大形成鲜明对比的是设施、制度等各方面的不健全,这导致近些年我国危险品事故率不断上升,给生命财产及环境安全带来了极大的隐患。出现这些问题的原因是多方面的,由于危险品的特殊性和公路运输的便利性,危险品通过公路进行运输的比例逐年提高,事故率也逐年提高,对运输线周边群众构成极大威胁,一定程度上讲,运输风险成本实际上也是运输成本的一部分,不断提高的运输成本也对危险品运输行业的发展提出了挑战。在本文的研究中将运输风险成本作为交易成本的一部分纳入运输成本的考虑范围,并着重进行分析和研究,首先,分析了影响危险品公路运输成本的主要因素。其次,将主要的风险因素作为因子纳入到风险成本度量的模型当中,建立了危险品公路运输成本的度量模型。再次,用模拟的算例进行不同风险因子之间对风险成本的影响程度进行对比,并就人口密度、交通自由流速度及交通密度三个因子,分析了同一风险因子数值变化对风险成本的影响程度,得出了三个基本结论:(1)我国高速公路车距最低不小于50米的规定得到了本文研究结论的验证,在这个车距下危险品公路运输的人员风险成本值最小,是最佳车流密度;车流密度小于最佳车流密度时,车辆撞击力大,危险品泄漏风险大导致高人员风险成本;车流密度大于最佳车流密度时,暴露在危险品泄漏风险中的人数增多导致高运输风险成本。(2)当人口密度较小时,自由流速度对风险成本影响较大,成正相关关系;当人口密度较大时,自由流速度对风险成本的影响比较微弱。(3)当自由流速度较小时,人口密度对风险成本的作用力较小;当自由流速度较大时,人口密度与风险成本成正相关关系,人口密度越大,风险成本值也越大,而且随着交通密度的增大,这种相关关系越明显。
[Abstract]:With the development of industry in our country, the dangerous goods market is showing a trend of constant expansion, but in sharp contrast to the market scale, facilities, systems and other aspects are not perfect. This has led to an increasing accident rate of dangerous goods in China in recent years, which has brought great hidden dangers to life, property and environmental safety. The reasons for these problems are various, due to the particularity of dangerous goods and the convenience of road transportation. The proportion of dangerous goods transported by road is increasing year by year, and the accident rate is also increasing year by year, which poses a great threat to the masses around the transport line. To a certain extent, the transportation risk cost is actually also part of the transportation cost. The increasing transportation cost also challenges the development of the dangerous goods transportation industry. In the research of this paper, the risk cost of transport is taken into account as a part of the transaction cost, and the analysis and research are emphasized. Secondly, the main risk factors are included in the model of risk cost measurement, and the measurement model of dangerous goods road transportation cost is established. The influence of different risk factors on risk cost is compared with the simulated examples, and three factors, population density, free flow speed and traffic density, are compared. This paper analyzes the influence of the same risk factor on the risk cost, and draws three basic conclusions: 1) the minimum distance of expressway in China is not less than 50 meters, which is verified by the conclusion of this paper. At this distance, the personnel risk cost of dangerous goods transportation by road is the smallest, which is the best vehicle flow density. When the vehicle flow density is less than the optimal vehicle flow density, the impact force of the vehicle will be large, and the risk of dangerous goods leakage will lead to high personnel risk cost. When the vehicle flow density is larger than the optimal vehicle flow density, the increase in the number of people exposed to the risk of dangerous goods leakage results in high transport risk cost. 2) when the population density is small, the free flow velocity has a greater impact on the risk cost, which has a positive correlation. When population density is high, the effect of free flow velocity on risk cost is weak. 3) when free flow velocity is small, the force of population density on risk cost is smaller; when free flow velocity is larger, The population density has a positive correlation with the risk cost, and the higher the population density, the greater the risk cost value, and the more obvious the correlation is with the increase of traffic density.
【学位授予单位】：烟台大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F542;F540.58

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