沿海港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值关联模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-22 00:15

本文关键词： 沿海港口集装箱吞吐量国内生产总值关联指数模型　出处：《大连海事大学》2014年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：交通运输是国民经济和社会发展的重要基础。集装箱运输是交通运输现代化的重要形式。集装箱港口质量的好坏影响到对外运输成本,关系到外国直接投资(Foreign Direct Investment, FDI)流入的数量。优质的港口基础设施会产生积聚效应,80年代我国集装箱运输业蓬勃发展催生了各地集装箱码头建设的热潮。由于集装箱港口具有建设资金投入量大、建设周期长的特点,盲目追求发展枢纽港的热潮将造成巨大的浪费。因此开展对我国和干线港口集装箱吞吐量“十三五期间”(至2020年)预测对我国港口合理布局和规划以及对综合交通体系的建设具有重要意义。本文在对国内外海港集装箱运输研究成果进行综述,对交通运输和经济学的主要理论介绍的基础上,分析了我国GDP及其要素与海港集装箱吞吐量的灰色关联度,人均GDP和外贸与服务进出口总额对海港集装箱吞吐量变化的贡献率,总结出国内生产总值与沿海港口集装箱吞吐量因果关系：沿海港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值关联特性可以表示为海港集装箱吞吐量对属地GDP的弹性系数。为了分析GDP的三大要素对海港集装箱吞吐量的拉动作用,推导了海港集装箱吞吐量相对GDP的弹性系数和相对三大要素的弹性系数之间的换算公式。本文分析了美国集装箱体系的演化过程,梳理了日本集装箱吞吐量数据,比较中国、美国和日本集装箱运输业发展轨迹和产生三国集装箱吞吐量差别的原因。提出不同地区沿海港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值关系也不一样,沿海港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值关系是属地的自然禀赋、工业化发展阶段、经济增长的模式和在全球经济一体化链条中分工的位置的综合反映。进而指出：中国海港集装箱运输业走了一条完全不同于发达国家(地区)的发展道路。为了预测我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量,本文利用时间序列-因果关系结合法建立了沿海港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值关联的指数模型。该模型用GDP数据取代时间作解释变量,为了克服非线性曲线带来的不稳定性,我们分别对集装箱吞吐量时间序列和GDP时间序列取自然对数,然后采用HP滤波技术,用GDP时间序列的趋势分量拟合集装箱吞吐量时间序列的趋势分量,建立了反映国内生产总值与沿海港口集装箱吞吐量因果关系的指数模型。提出我国GDP若以年均7.5%的速度增长,2020年我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量将达到2.308亿TEU。我国GDP若以年均6.0%的速度增长,2020年我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量将达到2.258亿TEU。我国GDP若以年均4.5%的速度增长,2020年我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量达到2.195亿TEU。干线港集装箱吞吐量决定了我国集装箱吞吐量的走势,对我国干线港集装箱吞吐量的预测是对我国沿海港口集装箱吞吐量结果的诠释。我们根据干线港集装箱吞吐量增长率的变化趋势,分别采用Logistic模型,指数模型和组合预测法对上海、深圳、广州、天津、宁波-舟山、青岛、大连和厦门等8个干线港集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,预测结果表明：2014-2020年干线港集装箱吞吐量的增长速度呈现逐步减小的趋势,在GDP平稳增长常态化的条件下,干线港集装箱吞吐量增长趋势将有所减缓。对比2013年集装箱吞吐量和2020年集装箱吞吐量在全国占比平方和,推断我国集装箱港口体系由垄断型向竞争型发展的长期趋势。目前,世界经济形势错综复杂,我国正在推进要素驱动向创新驱动为主经济发展方式转变和经济结构调整。我国作为“世界加工厂”的位置将得以改变。科学的预测对实现我国海港集装箱港口的合理布局和规划将具有重要的意义。
[Abstract]:Transportation is an important foundation of national economic and social development. Container transportation is an important form of modern transportation. Affect quality of container ports to foreign transportation costs related to foreign direct investment (Foreign Direct, Investment, FDI) into the quantity. The quality of port infrastructure will have accumulated effect, in 80s China's container transportation boom spawned throughout the construction of container terminal construction boom. Because the container port with a large amount of capital investment, long construction period, the blind pursuit of development boom hub will cause huge waste. Therefore to carry out "China and the container throughput of link ports during 13th Five-Year" (2020) prediction has important significance on China's port layout and planning and construction of the integrated transportation system.
This paper in the harbor of domestic and international container transportation research, introduced the main theory of transportation economics and on the analysis of grey correlation degree and GDP elements and the seaport container throughput in China, per capita GDP and foreign trade and service import and export volume change on port container throughput contribution rate, summed up the domestic production gross and coastal port container throughput of causality: correlation of coastal port container throughput and GDP can be expressed as the coefficient of elasticity of harbor container throughput of GDP. For the local stimulating effect of three factors analysis GDP for seaport container throughput, conversion formula between the elastic coefficient of elasticity coefficient is derived and the seaport container throughput relative to GDP relative to the three elements.
This paper analyzes the evolution process of the container system, combing the Japanese container throughput data comparison, Chinese, cause the United States and Japan container transportation industry development path and generate three container throughput difference. The relationship between coastal port container throughput in different areas and GDP is not the same, the relationship between coastal port container throughput and GDP is territorial the natural endowment, the development stage of industrialization, a comprehensive reflection of the mode of the economic growth and division of labor in the chain of global economic integration. And it is pointed out that the position: Chinese harbor container transportation industry took a completely different from the developed countries (regions) of the road of development.
In order to predict the container throughput in China's coastal ports, using time series causality and established the index model for coastal port container throughput associated with the GDP method. The model uses the GDP data to replace the time as explanatory variables, in order to overcome the nonlinear curve instability, we take the natural logarithm of container throughput time series and GDP time series, and then uses the HP filter technology, with the trend component of container throughput time series trend component fitting of GDP time series, established to reflect the GDP index model and the coastal port container throughput causation. Put forward our country GDP in an average annual growth rate of 7.5% in 2020, China's coastal port container throughput up to 230 million 800 thousand TEU. GDP in China with an average annual growth rate of 6%, in 2020 China's coastal port container. The throughput will reach 225 million 800 thousand TEU. and our country's GDP increases at an average annual rate of 4.5%. The container throughput of China's coastal ports reached 219 million 500 thousand TEU. in 2020.
Trunk port container throughput in China determines the trend of container throughput, forecast of China's main port container throughput is on China's coastal port container throughput results interpretation. Our growth trend rate according to the trunk port container throughput, respectively, using Logistic model, exponential model and combination forecasting method in Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou. Tianjin, Ningbo - Zhoushan, Qingdao, Dalian and Xiamen 8 trunk port container throughput forecast, the forecast results show that 2014-2020 years of trunk port container throughput growth rate showed a gradually decreasing trend, steady growth in GDP normalization conditions, trunk port container throughput growth trend has slowed. Compared with 2013 container throughput and container throughput in 2020 in the country accounted for the square and conclude that our container port system from monopoly to competition The long-term trend of type development.
At present, perplexing world economic situation, China is promoting the transformation of the factor driven to innovation driven economic development mode and the adjustment of economic structure. China as a "world factory" position will be changed. Scientific prediction is important for the realization of China's port container port reasonable layout and planning.

【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F552;F224;F124

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