铁路工程施工承包项目风险预警系统构建方法的研究

发布时间：2018-02-24 21:34

本文关键词： 风险预警模糊综合评价预警指标　出处：《西南交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国国民经济的快速发展和经济实力的不断增强,铁路事业也得到了飞速的发展。但目前在我国铁路建设中,施工承包企业风险意识普遍薄弱,风险管理水平差,没有能够建立起全面、完善的风险管理系统,风险管理的研究有待加强。因此,作为施工承包方构建铁路工程项目的风险预警系统,对在铁路项目实施过程中可能出现的风险采取超前或预先管理的方式,一旦监控到风险的征兆,及时采取校正措施并发出预警信号,将损失降低到最低程度就显得尤为重要。本文首先研究了铁路工程项目及其风险的特点,较深入地识别分析了该项目在实施过程中可能遇到和潜在的风险因素,这是进行风险预警的前提；采用了风险分解结构将影响铁路工程施工承包项目的风险因素按层次关系进行分层、分类。其次,探讨研究了铁路工程施工承包项目的风险预警系统的构建思路和方法,包括对该风险预警系统的概念、特点、功能、框架体系以及其运行机理进行了研究。本文提出该系统的框架体系由风险预警信息子系统、风险识别子系统、风险评价子系统、风险预警判别子系统和风险预警对策子系统这五个方面组成。在建立的铁路工程施工承包项目风险预警指标体系的基础上,运用基于AHP的模糊综合评价法建立了该系统的风险预警模型,评价项目的风险情况,并对不同的评价结果给出不同的预警信号。最后,为了验证建立的风险预警模型实用性、合理性,将模型运用到龙厦铁路象山隧道这一标段进行综合评估。研究了针对铁路工程施工承包风险的几种常用防控策略,并提出了对应各等级项目风险的应对预案和主要风险因素的应对措施以及动态风险控制措施。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of our national economy and the increasing of economic strength, the railway industry has also been developing rapidly. However, in the railway construction of our country, the risk consciousness of construction contracting enterprises is generally weak and the level of risk management is poor. The research on risk management needs to be strengthened. Therefore, as a construction contractor, a risk early warning system for railway projects can be constructed. In the process of railway project implementation, it is very important to adopt the way of leading or managing the risk in advance or in advance. Once the warning of the risk is monitored and corrected in time and the warning signal is issued, it is very important to reduce the loss to the lowest degree. Firstly, this paper studies the characteristics of railway project and its risk, and identifies and analyzes the possible and potential risk factors in the implementation of the project, which is the premise of risk early warning. Risk decomposition structure is adopted to stratify and classify the risk factors that affect railway construction contracting projects according to the hierarchical relationship. Secondly, the paper discusses the construction ideas and methods of the risk early warning system of the railway construction contract project, including the concept, characteristics and functions of the risk warning system. This paper puts forward that the framework system of the system is composed of risk early warning information subsystem, risk identification subsystem, risk evaluation subsystem, and so on. On the basis of the risk warning index system of railway construction contract project, the risk early-warning subsystem and the risk early-warning countermeasure subsystem are established. The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on AHP is used to establish the risk early warning model of the system. The risk situation of the project is evaluated, and different early warning signals are given for different evaluation results. Finally, in order to verify the practicability and rationality of the established risk warning model, the model is applied to the section of Xiangshan Tunnel of Longxia Railway for comprehensive evaluation. Several common prevention and control strategies for railway construction contract risk are studied. At the same time, the coping plan and main risk factors and dynamic risk control measures of each grade project risk are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：U215.1;F532

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