基于系统动力学的城际高速铁路客流成长分析模型研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 06:48

本文关键词： 城际高速铁路客流成长系统动力学旅客感知仿真　出处：《上海交通大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着环渤海、长三角、珠三角等经济发达和人口稠密地区城际客运系统的发展,城际高速铁路建设已经成为城市化走廊地区解决区域交通问题的首选。在城际高速铁路不同的发展时期,其客流量变化及增长也呈现出不同,客流量的大小对于城际高速铁路建设的决策、建设后功能的充分发挥及运营管理的科学组织等方面影响重大。本文应用系统动力学的理论与方法,结合Logistic模型,同时考虑旅客感知效用,构建用于分析城际高速铁路客流成长的数学模型,从定量与定性相结合的角度对城际高速铁路客流量成长及其分担率进行仿真研究,进而分析城际高速铁路客流变化的一般规律。本文首先对城际高速铁路客流量结构及变化影响因素进行了深入分析。接着,根据高速铁路客流系统的特点,应用系统动力学方法,对高速铁路客流的成长机理进行了研究。并建立了用于分析城际高速铁路客流成长的模型。最后,以沪宁地区城际高速铁路为背景,应用Vensim软件工具开展仿真模拟,进一步验证了模型的科学合理性。结果表明,票价、旅客感知舒适度及投资策略影响客流成长:当票价高出旅客心理票价特定比例,客流量开始呈现负增长趋势;票价与旅客感知舒适度的合理相关度有利于客流成长;实施差异化投资有利于城际高速铁路不同时期的客流成长以及运输收益的增长与平衡;2011年～2030年间,沪宁(上海～南京)通道的高速铁路市场占有率将逐步得到提高,普通铁路及长途客运的市场占有率均有所下降。本文的研究成果对城际高速铁路未来发展具有一定的参考价值。
[Abstract]:With the development of inter-city passenger transport systems in economically developed and densely populated areas such as the Bohai Rim, the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, Inter-city high-speed railway construction has become the first choice to solve regional traffic problems in urbanized corridor areas. In different periods of development of inter-city high-speed railway, the change and growth of passenger flow are different. The size of passenger flow has a great influence on the decision of the construction of inter-city high-speed railway, the full play of the function after construction and the scientific organization of operation management and so on. Based on the theory and method of system dynamics, combined with Logistic model and considering passenger perception utility, this paper constructs a mathematical model for analyzing passenger flow growth of inter-city high-speed railway. The paper simulates the growth and sharing rate of passenger flow of inter-city high-speed railway from the angle of quantitative and qualitative analysis, and then analyzes the general law of passenger flow change of inter-city high-speed railway. In this paper, the structure of intercity high-speed railway passenger flow and its influence factors are analyzed. Then, according to the characteristics of high-speed railway passenger flow system, the system dynamics method is applied. The growth mechanism of high-speed railway passenger flow is studied, and the model used to analyze the growth of inter-city high-speed railway passenger flow is established. Finally, based on the high-speed railway in Huning area, the simulation is carried out with the Vensim software tool. The results show that ticket price, passenger perceived comfort and investment strategy affect the growth of passenger flow: when the ticket price is higher than the specific proportion of psychological ticket price, the passenger flow begins to show a negative growth trend; The reasonable correlation between ticket price and passenger comfort is beneficial to the growth of passenger flow; the implementation of differential investment is conducive to the growth of passenger flow and the growth and balance of transport income in different periods of inter-city high-speed railway; and the period from 2011 to 2030, The high-speed railway market share of the Huning (Shanghai-Nanjing) corridor will be gradually increased. The market share of ordinary railway and long-distance passenger transportation has declined. The research results of this paper have certain reference value for the future development of inter-city high-speed railway.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：U293.13

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