基于碳足迹的北京公交系统运行效率的研究

发布时间：2018-02-26 09:56

本文关键词： 碳足迹公共交通运行效率数据包络分析（DEA） Tobit模型　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国城市化进程不断加速，交通问题日益突出。公共交通是城市化进程中最重要的组成部分之一，它对城市的可持续发展和城市环境带来的负面影响不容忽视。尤其是在现今全球变暖的大趋势下，提高公共交通系统的运行效率，降低对大气环境的污染，减轻城市自身的负荷成为政府、学术界和社会都十分关注的问题。过去十年全球二氧化碳排放总量增加了13％，而源自交通工具的碳排放增长率却达25％。相关研究表明，在一样的能源需求量增长下，优化交通的模式能达到比较好的减排效果。所以，研究基于碳足迹的交通系统的运营效率，对城市的发展、城市环境的保护，以及资源集约型社会都具有重要的理论和实践意义。现代工业化工基础是能源矿物燃料，现在任何生产活动都离不开能源的使用。本文根据IPCC提供的全球变暖潜能值GWP及相关物质的碳排放因子，统计计算公交系统总的碳排放量。从效率评价的角度出发，运用数据包络方法（Data Envelopment Analysis），分析比较了十一年电汽车和地铁两种交通方式的运行效率，其中的指标大部分来自于中国统计年鉴和北京统计年鉴。在效率评价中，本文选取了多模型和多角度，得出了四种结果，，分别是已输入为导向的规模效益不变模型、以输出为导向的规模效益不变模型、以输入为导向的规模效益可变模型、以输出为导向的规模效益可变模型。得到了各年各决策单元交通运行的纯技术效率、规模效率、规模趋势值，从而揭示了电汽车和地铁运行效率的总体情况。在得出了北京市公共交通系统的各种效率值后，本文采用非线性回归分析法对结果进行验证，利用了Tobit模型对数据指标如何影响公交运行效率进行验证分析,并提出改进效率和优化配置的建议。研究显示，结合DEA和Tobit模型的公交运行效率评价方法具有良好的有效性，不仅能比较出规模效率、纯技术效率，还能对各个指标对效率的影响进行较为深入的分析，本文研究的路线和方法可以为类似的基于碳足迹的公交系统运行效率作为一个参考和借鉴的例子。
[Abstract]:With the acceleration of urbanization in China, traffic problems are becoming increasingly prominent. Public transport is one of the most important components in the process of urbanization. Its negative impact on the sustainable development of cities and the urban environment can not be ignored, especially in the current global warming trend, improve the efficiency of public transport systems, reduce the pollution to the atmosphere. Reducing the burden on cities has become a matter of great concern to governments, academia and society. Global carbon dioxide emissions have increased by 13 percent over the past decade, while emissions from vehicles have grown by 25 percent. With the same energy demand increasing, the traffic optimization model can achieve better emission reduction effect. Therefore, the paper studies the operation efficiency of the transportation system based on carbon footprint, the development of the city and the protection of the urban environment. And resource-intensive society has important theoretical and practical significance. The basis of modern industrial and chemical industry is energy fossil fuel, and any production activity is inseparable from the use of energy. According to the global warming potential (GWP) and the carbon emission factors of related substances provided by IPCC, Calculate the total carbon emissions of the public transport system. From the point of view of efficiency evaluation, the data Envelopment analysis method is used to analyze and compare the operation efficiency of 11 year electric vehicle and subway transportation modes. Most of the indicators are from the China Statistical Yearbook and the Beijing Statistical Yearbook. In the efficiency evaluation, this paper selects the multi-model and multi-angle, and obtains four results, which are the invariant model of scale benefit, which has been input as the guide. The output oriented scale benefit invariant model, the input oriented scale benefit variable model, the output oriented scale benefit variable model, the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency of each decision making unit's traffic operation in each year are obtained. Scale trend value, thus revealing the overall efficiency of electric vehicles and subway operation. After getting the various efficiency values of Beijing public transport system, this paper uses nonlinear regression analysis method to verify the results, and uses Tobit model to verify how the data indicators affect the efficiency of public transportation. Suggestions for improving efficiency and optimizing configuration are also put forward. The research shows that the evaluation method of bus operation efficiency based on DEA and Tobit model has good effectiveness. It can not only compare the scale efficiency and pure technical efficiency, but also analyze the influence of each index on the efficiency. The route and method studied in this paper can be used as a reference and reference example for similar bus system operation efficiency based on carbon footprint.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F205;F572.88

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