北极东北航线对全球经济潜在影响的CGE分析及战略启示

发布时间：2018-02-27 14:49

  本文关键词： 北极航线 东北航线 可计算一般均衡 经济影响　出处：《中国软科学》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在气候变暖作用下,北极航线开发再度成为全球关注的焦点。北极航线的大规模开发和使用对中国及全球经济均具有重要潜在影响,各国家或地区的受益程度构成了其应对战略的经济基础。作者改进了GTAP模型并自主开发了可计算一般均衡模拟系统,对北极东北航线的经济影响开展了模拟研究。结果显示,东北航线的使用促进了全球经济增长,但不同国家或地区的受益程度有所不同,包括中国在内的东亚地区、欧盟等成为最大受益方。根据东北航线的地理特征及其对各经济体的经济影响差异,辨识了东北航线开发中存在的主要利益集团及其所持观点,并据此提出了中国与各集团的合作思路。
[Abstract]:Under the influence of climate warming, the development of Arctic routes has once again become the focus of global attention. The large-scale development and use of Arctic routes have important potential impacts on China and the global economy. The degree of benefit of each country or region constitutes the economic base of its coping strategy. The author has improved the GTAP model and independently developed a computable general equilibrium simulation system to simulate the economic impact of the Arctic northeast route. The results show that, The use of northeast routes has promoted global economic growth, but different countries or regions have different benefits. East Asia, including China, The European Union and others have become the biggest beneficiaries. According to the geographical characteristics of the northeast route and its economic impact on various economies, the main interest groups existing in the development of the northeast route and their views have been identified. Based on this, the cooperation between China and various groups is put forward.
【作者单位】： 中国社会科学院城市发展与环境研究所;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金青年项目“北极航道的发展前景、经济影响与中国的参与机制研究”(15CGJ024) 中国博士后科学基金面上项目“地缘政治经济视角下碳关税问题的多区域CGE模拟”(2013M541113)
【分类号】：F562
，

本文编号：1543122