基于小波神经网络的邯郸市货运量预测及应用

发布时间：2018-02-28 03:21

本文关键词： 区域物流区域物流需求区域货运量小波神经网络物流园区规模　出处：《河北工程大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：区域货运量预测是区域物流规划中一项很重要的工作。合理预测区域货运量是规划区域物流基础设施建设规模的基础，为网络布局和区域物流的发展指明方向。合理预测区域货运量的目的在于，能够使区域物流服务的供给与需求之间保持平衡，使区域物流保持较高的效益和效率。本文在阅读大量文献的基础上，全面的了解国内外研究现状和存在的问题。在此基础上，介绍了区域物流相关理论及特征，区域货运量预测中比较基础实用的预测方法，并提出基于区域货运量预测数据对物流园区占地面积进行规划的目的，文章指出由于区域物流需求相对难以衡量，以区域货运量为分析对象更为合适，以达到数据量化的效果。之后，文章分析了区域货运量的主要影响因素，从区域经济总量，区域产业结构等方面构建了区域货运量的预测指标体系。再次，由于文章采用小波神经网络对货运量进行预测，小波神经网络是传统的BP神经网络和近年来研究比较多的小波分析理论结合而来，文章介绍了小波神经网络这种算法的相关理论及如何建立模型并求解的。文章最后一章利用小波神经网络对邯郸市货运量进行了预测，对预测结果的合理性进行了检验，并将预测结果与指数平滑，多元回归，，灰色预测模型的预测结果相比较，证明了小波神经网络的可行性和有效性。并在得到预测结果的基础上，对邯郸市2017年物流园区的占地规模和数量规模进行了规划。
[Abstract]:Regional freight volume prediction is an important task in regional logistics planning. Reasonable forecasting of regional freight volume is the basis of planning the scale of regional logistics infrastructure construction. The purpose of reasonably forecasting regional freight volume is to keep a balance between supply and demand of regional logistics services and to maintain higher efficiency and efficiency of regional logistics. On the basis of reading a large number of documents, this paper has a comprehensive understanding of the current research situation and existing problems at home and abroad. On this basis, it introduces the relevant theories and characteristics of regional logistics, and the relatively basic and practical forecasting methods for regional freight volume forecasting. The purpose of planning the area of logistics park based on regional freight volume forecast data is put forward. It is pointed out that because regional logistics demand is relatively difficult to measure, it is more appropriate to take regional freight volume as the analysis object. In order to achieve the effect of quantitative data. Then, the paper analyzes the main factors of regional freight volume, from the regional economic aggregate, regional industrial structure and other aspects of the forecast index system of regional freight volume. In this paper, wavelet neural network is used to predict freight volume. Wavelet neural network is a combination of traditional BP neural network and wavelet analysis theory, which has been studied in recent years. This paper introduces the related theory of wavelet neural network algorithm and how to build the model and solve it. In the last chapter, we use wavelet neural network to forecast the freight volume of Handan city, and test the rationality of the forecast result. Compared with the prediction results of exponential smoothing, multivariate regression and grey prediction model, the feasibility and validity of wavelet neural network are proved. In 2017, Handan logistics park covers an area of scale and quantity of planning.
【学位授予单位】：河北工程大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F512.7

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