现代有轨电车运营成本测算及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-02-28 06:31

本文关键词： 城市公共交通城市轨道交通有轨电车运营成本灵敏度分析　出处：《北京交通大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着以汽车为主导的交通模式所带来的交通拥堵、能源危机、环境污染等问题日益严峻,发展大容量公共交通为主导的城市交通系统受到各大城市的重视。具有运量适中、投资较低、节能环保及运营组织灵活等优点的有轨电车受到很多城市的青睐。有轨电车的运营成本影响政府及企业对有轨电车的选择和运营,因此,研究有轨电车的运营成本构成及测算方法,对有轨电车的科学发展具有重要的借鉴意义。本文对现代有轨电车在国内外的运营组织情况进行研究,分析了有轨电车在不同城市的功能定位和财务经营情况,提出了有轨电车运营成本的测算模型并进行实例验证,最后对成本因素进行灵敏度分析,本文的主要工作和结论如下： (1)分析有轨电车的特性,将有轨电车与其他公共交通方式在技术参数、运营成本和服务指标上进行对比,得到有轨电车的建设成本较低、运营组织灵活、发展潜力较大的结论。分析国内外典型城市有轨电车的运营组织、功能定位、补贴财政等,得到财务经营状况主要受运营主体、功能定位影响的结论,例如财务经营比较成功的香港、旧金山、巴黎均是政府委托企业运营,运行组织灵活、票制多样,客运量较高,需要补贴较少,甚至能够盈利。 (2)结合我国有轨电车的特点,把运营成本分为可变成本和固定成本,细化了牵引能耗费用和维修费用,可变成本包括牵引电力消耗费用和动车组维修费用,固定成本包括人员工资福利、固定设备维护维修费用、车站动力照明费用、综合管理费用和其他费用,提出了运营成本测算模型。并以上海张江线为案例,测算得到年运营成本为3041.26万元,单位人次运营成本为11.90元；与国内外其他线路的运营成本进行比较,得到运营成本与客运量有关,单位客运量运营成本与客运量、服务水平、人工成本等因素有关的结论。建议张江线借鉴爱丁堡1a线的灵活运行策略来降低运营成本,借鉴其联合公交票制来吸引客流,增加运营收入。 (3)对有轨电车运营成本的构成因素进行灵敏度分析,分别研究一个、多个因素的变化对运营成本的影响程度,包括客运量、车辆运用、技术速度、劳动生产率等因素。研究得到客运量提高20%时,年运营成本提高了0.93%,影响较小；单位客运量运营成本降低了15.89%,影响较大。建议客运量提高时,适当提高发车单元数和技术速度,增强有轨电车的竞争力；运输能力过剩时,可以适当缩减发车频率、降低运行速度来降低运营成本。
[Abstract]:With the traffic congestion, energy crisis, environmental pollution and other problems brought by the vehicle-oriented traffic mode, the development of the urban transportation system dominated by mass public transport has attracted the attention of the major cities. Trams with the advantages of low investment, energy saving, environmental protection and flexible operation organization are favored by many cities. The operation cost of trams affects the choice and operation of trams by the government and enterprises. It is of great significance for the scientific development of trams to study the operation cost composition and calculation method of tram. In this paper, the operation organization of modern trams at home and abroad is studied, the function orientation and financial management of trams in different cities are analyzed, and the calculating model of tram operating cost is put forward and verified by an example. Finally, the sensitivity analysis of cost factors is carried out. The main work and conclusions of this paper are as follows:. 1) analyzing the characteristics of trams, comparing trams with other public transportation modes in terms of technical parameters, operating costs and service indicators, it is concluded that the construction cost of trams is lower and the operation organization is flexible. This paper analyzes the operation organization, function orientation, subsidy finance of trams in typical cities at home and abroad, and draws the conclusion that the financial operation status is mainly affected by the main body of operation and the function orientation. For example, Hong Kong, San Francisco and Paris, where financial operations are relatively successful, are entrusted by the government to run enterprises, with flexible operating organizations, diverse ticket systems, high passenger volumes, less subsidies and even profitability. According to the characteristics of tram in China, the operation cost is divided into variable cost and fixed cost, and the cost of traction energy consumption and maintenance is refined. The variable cost includes the cost of traction power consumption and the maintenance cost of EMU. The fixed cost includes salary and welfare of personnel, maintenance and repair of fixed equipment, power lighting cost of station, comprehensive management cost and other expenses. The calculation model of operation cost is put forward, and a case study of Zhangjiang Line in Shanghai is given. The annual operating cost is estimated to be thirty million four hundred and twelve thousand and six hundred yuan, and the operating cost per person per person is 11.90 yuan. Compared with the operating cost of other lines at home and abroad, the operating cost is related to the passenger volume, and the unit passenger volume operation cost and passenger volume, service level, It is suggested that the Zhangjiang Line should draw lessons from the flexible operation strategy of Edinburgh Line 1a to reduce the operating cost and draw lessons from the United bus ticket system to attract passengers and increase operating income. (3) the sensitivity analysis of the component factors of tram operation cost is carried out, and the influence of the change of several factors on the operation cost is studied, including passenger volume, vehicle operation, technical speed, etc. When the passenger volume is increased by 20%, the annual operating cost is increased by 0.93, and the influence is small; the unit passenger volume operation cost is reduced by 15.89, and the influence is great. It is suggested that when the passenger volume is increased, the number of departure units and the technical speed should be appropriately increased. When the transportation capacity is excess, the departure frequency can be reduced, and the running speed can be reduced to reduce the operating cost.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F570.5;U492.433

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