后危机时代灵便型散货船运输市场研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 05:27

本文选题：灵便型散货船　切入点：组合预测　出处：《大连海事大学》2012年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：世界海运量中三分之一以上是干散货运输,而国际干散货航运市场几乎接近完全竞争机构,市场行情波动频繁,竞争激烈,受世界政治、军事、经济、自然因素影响大。2008年下半年,国际干散货市场在度过了一段由经济快速发展带来的高度繁荣期后,遭受金融危机的重创坠入谷底,干散货运输需求急剧减少。据Clarkson统计,2008年,全球干散货海运量增长4%,同比下降20%,而2009年全球干散货海运量同比减少3%,为近十年来首次出现负增长。灵便型散货船是国际干散货航运市场的重要组成部分。由于灵便型船舶具有货种丰富、对港口适应性较强、经营灵活的特点,在应对危机方面表现出了较强的抵御风险的能力,受到各航运企业的重视,成为各航运企业未来重点发展的船型。同时,后危机时代,灵便型船舶运输市场仍存在各种变数,航运企业干散货船队的发展环境存在着巨大的不确定性,航运企业如何在竞争激烈、行情振荡的干散货航运市场中制定适当的船队营运策略是一项具有重要的实践意义的研究工作。本文正是基于这一背景,对灵便型散货船运输市场展开了分析和研究。文章首先从国际干散货航运市场入手,对国际干散货市场的构成,货源情况,船队构成,及发展特点进行介绍和说明,总结归纳灵便型散货船运输的主要特点,并根据灵便型散货船运价指数的变化特点对其运输市场近几年的运作情况进行了回顾。然后,本文建立了线性回归、布朗单一参数指数平滑和灰色预测的组合模型对灵便散货船主要货种的海运量进行了预测,并对灵便型散货船航运市场的发展趋势进行了分析,为企业灵便型船队经营策略的制定和调整提供依据。最后,结合对灵便型散货船航运市场未来发展形势的分析提出灵便型船队应当采取的经营策略,主要涉及联合经营、船队调整、市场竞争、风险防控、多元化发展五个方面。
[Abstract]:More than 1/3 of the world's sea transport volume is dry bulk transportation, while the international dry bulk shipping market is almost close to the completely competitive agency. The market market fluctuates frequently and the competition is fierce, which is affected by world politics, military, and economy. In the second half of 2008, after a period of high prosperity brought by rapid economic development, the international dry bulk market was hit by the financial crisis and fell to the bottom, and the demand for dry bulk transportation fell sharply. According to Clarkson statistics, in 2008, Global dry bulk cargo volume increased by 4 percent, down 20 percent from a year earlier. In 2009, global dry bulk cargo volume fell by 3 percent from a year earlier, the first negative growth in nearly a decade. The flexible bulk carrier is an important part of the international dry bulk shipping market. In response to the crisis has shown a strong ability to resist risks, by the attention of shipping enterprises, become the shipping enterprises in the future key development of ship type. At the same time, in the post-crisis era, there are still a variety of variables in the flexible shipping market. There is great uncertainty in the development environment of dry bulk fleet of shipping enterprises. It is of great practical significance to formulate appropriate fleet operation strategy in dry bulk shipping market. Based on this background, this paper analyzes and studies the market of flexible bulk carrier transportation. Firstly, this paper starts with the international dry bulk cargo shipping market, and analyzes the composition of the international dry bulk cargo market, the supply of goods and the composition of the fleet. This paper introduces and explains the characteristics of development, summarizes and summarizes the main characteristics of the flexible bulk carrier transportation, and reviews the operation of the transport market in recent years according to the change characteristics of the freight rate index of the flexible bulk carrier in recent years. In this paper, a combination model of linear regression, Brownian single parameter exponential smoothing and grey prediction is established to predict the sea volume of the main cargo types of the bulk carriers, and the trend of the development of the shipping market of the flexible bulk carriers is analyzed. Finally, combined with the analysis of the future development situation of the flexible bulk carrier shipping market, the paper puts forward the management strategy that the flexible fleet should adopt, mainly involving the joint operation. Fleet adjustment, market competition, risk prevention and control, diversification development in five aspects.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F551

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